**Recent Israeli election dynamics strongly favor Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on separate lists.** With snap elections set for October 27, 2026, far-right parties face intense pressure to consolidate amid polls showing new entrant Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter) drawing votes from the Religious Zionist Party (RZP) and pushing it near or below the 3.25% threshold. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly urged Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Bezalel Smotrich (RZP) to merge their slates to maximize right-wing seats, but Ben-Gvir has rejected this, calling instead for a large independent Otzma Yehudit while suggesting Smotrich align elsewhere. Noam, the small anti-LGBT religious party previously included in the 2021–2022 Religious Zionist technical bloc with both Otzma Yehudit and RZP, receives no recent mention in merger discussions. Its rebranding efforts have not produced announced joint-list agreements, and polls place it well below the threshold on its own. Ben-Gvir’s emphasis on preserving Otzma Yehudit’s distinct brand and seat count, combined with the absence of any confirmed Noam-Otzma talks, underpins traders’ strong consensus that the two will not share a list. Late developments such as Winter’s entry and right-wing fragmentation continue to shape this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent Israeli election dynamics strongly favor Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on separate lists.** With snap elections set for October 27, 2026, far-right parties face intense pressure to consolidate amid polls showing new entrant Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter) drawing votes from the Religious Zionist Party (RZP) and pushing it near or below the 3.25% threshold. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly urged Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Bezalel Smotrich (RZP) to merge their slates to maximize right-wing seats, but Ben-Gvir has rejected this, calling instead for a large independent Otzma Yehudit while suggesting Smotrich align elsewhere.
Noam, the small anti-LGBT religious party previously included in the 2021–2022 Religious Zionist technical bloc with both Otzma Yehudit and RZP, receives no recent mention in merger discussions. Its rebranding efforts have not produced announced joint-list agreements, and polls place it well below the threshold on its own. Ben-Gvir’s emphasis on preserving Otzma Yehudit’s distinct brand and seat count, combined with the absence of any confirmed Noam-Otzma talks, underpins traders’ strong consensus that the two will not share a list. Late developments such as Winter’s entry and right-wing fragmentation continue to shape this positioning.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent Israeli election dynamics strongly favor Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on separate lists.** With snap elections set for October 27, 2026, far-right parties face intense pressure to consolidate amid polls showing new entrant Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter) drawing votes from the Religious Zionist Party (RZP) and pushing it near or below the 3.25% threshold. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly urged Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Bezalel Smotrich (RZP) to merge their slates to maximize right-wing seats, but Ben-Gvir has rejected this, calling instead for a large independent Otzma Yehudit while suggesting Smotrich align elsewhere.
Noam, the small anti-LGBT religious party previously included in the 2021–2022 Religious Zionist technical bloc with both Otzma Yehudit and RZP, receives no recent mention in merger discussions. Its rebranding efforts have not produced announced joint-list agreements, and polls place it well below the threshold on its own. Ben-Gvir’s emphasis on preserving Otzma Yehudit’s distinct brand and seat count, combined with the absence of any confirmed Noam-Otzma talks, underpins traders’ strong consensus that the two will not share a list. Late developments such as Winter’s entry and right-wing fragmentation continue to shape this positioning.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Israeli election dynamics strongly favor Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on separate lists.** With snap elections set for October 27, 2026, far-right parties face intense pressure to consolidate amid polls showing new entrant Amcha Yisrael (Ofer Winter) drawing votes from the Religious Zionist Party (RZP) and pushing it near or below the 3.25% threshold. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly urged Itamar Ben-Gvir (Otzma Yehudit) and Bezalel Smotrich (RZP) to merge their slates to maximize right-wing seats, but Ben-Gvir has rejected this, calling instead for a large independent Otzma Yehudit while suggesting Smotrich align elsewhere. Noam, the small anti-LGBT religious party previously included in the 2021–2022 Religious Zionist technical bloc with both Otzma Yehudit and RZP, receives no recent mention in merger discussions. Its rebranding efforts have not produced announced joint-list agreements, and polls place it well below the threshold on its own. Ben-Gvir’s emphasis on preserving Otzma Yehudit’s distinct brand and seat count, combined with the absence of any confirmed Noam-Otzma talks, underpins traders’ strong consensus that the two will not share a list. Late developments such as Winter’s entry and right-wing fragmentation continue to shape this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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