**Recent polling and coalition dynamics strongly favor RZP running independently.** Multiple late-August 2026 surveys show Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel/Amcha Yisrael party drawing enough right-wing and religious-Zionist support to push Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party below the 3.25% electoral threshold when the two compete separately. This risk has prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to urge Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and RZP to form a joint list, but Ben-Gvir has repeatedly declared any such merger “final and complete” and refused talks. RZP finalized and released its own Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich in the top slot and no provision for a Likud technical bloc. Earlier discussions about reserving Likud spots for Smotrich or exploring surplus-vote deals have not advanced into formal joint-list negotiations. Likud completed its own primary on August 17 and published a separate national list, further signaling distinct campaigns ahead of the October 27 election. These developments—independent list submissions, failed unity talks between the far-right parties, and persistent polling pressure on RZP—underpin traders’ 87.5% assessment that Likud and RZP will not appear on the same ballot. Any late reversal would require an abrupt, high-profile agreement before the Central Elections Committee deadline, an outcome current reporting does not indicate is underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0% chance
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NEW
Sep 7, 2026
0% chance
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Sep 7, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent polling and coalition dynamics strongly favor RZP running independently.** Multiple late-August 2026 surveys show Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel/Amcha Yisrael party drawing enough right-wing and religious-Zionist support to push Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party below the 3.25% electoral threshold when the two compete separately. This risk has prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to urge Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and RZP to form a joint list, but Ben-Gvir has repeatedly declared any such merger “final and complete” and refused talks.
RZP finalized and released its own Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich in the top slot and no provision for a Likud technical bloc. Earlier discussions about reserving Likud spots for Smotrich or exploring surplus-vote deals have not advanced into formal joint-list negotiations. Likud completed its own primary on August 17 and published a separate national list, further signaling distinct campaigns ahead of the October 27 election.
These developments—independent list submissions, failed unity talks between the far-right parties, and persistent polling pressure on RZP—underpin traders’ 87.5% assessment that Likud and RZP will not appear on the same ballot. Any late reversal would require an abrupt, high-profile agreement before the Central Elections Committee deadline, an outcome current reporting does not indicate is underway.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent polling and coalition dynamics strongly favor RZP running independently.** Multiple late-August 2026 surveys show Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel/Amcha Yisrael party drawing enough right-wing and religious-Zionist support to push Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party below the 3.25% electoral threshold when the two compete separately. This risk has prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to urge Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and RZP to form a joint list, but Ben-Gvir has repeatedly declared any such merger “final and complete” and refused talks.
RZP finalized and released its own Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich in the top slot and no provision for a Likud technical bloc. Earlier discussions about reserving Likud spots for Smotrich or exploring surplus-vote deals have not advanced into formal joint-list negotiations. Likud completed its own primary on August 17 and published a separate national list, further signaling distinct campaigns ahead of the October 27 election.
These developments—independent list submissions, failed unity talks between the far-right parties, and persistent polling pressure on RZP—underpin traders’ 87.5% assessment that Likud and RZP will not appear on the same ballot. Any late reversal would require an abrupt, high-profile agreement before the Central Elections Committee deadline, an outcome current reporting does not indicate is underway.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling and coalition dynamics strongly favor RZP running independently.** Multiple late-August 2026 surveys show Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel/Amcha Yisrael party drawing enough right-wing and religious-Zionist support to push Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party below the 3.25% electoral threshold when the two compete separately. This risk has prompted Prime Minister Netanyahu to urge Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and RZP to form a joint list, but Ben-Gvir has repeatedly declared any such merger “final and complete” and refused talks. RZP finalized and released its own Knesset slate in late July after internal primaries, with Smotrich in the top slot and no provision for a Likud technical bloc. Earlier discussions about reserving Likud spots for Smotrich or exploring surplus-vote deals have not advanced into formal joint-list negotiations. Likud completed its own primary on August 17 and published a separate national list, further signaling distinct campaigns ahead of the October 27 election. These developments—independent list submissions, failed unity talks between the far-right parties, and persistent polling pressure on RZP—underpin traders’ 87.5% assessment that Likud and RZP will not appear on the same ballot. Any late reversal would require an abrupt, high-profile agreement before the Central Elections Committee deadline, an outcome current reporting does not indicate is underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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