Israeli forces have conducted repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in and around Beirut during the 2026 Lebanon war but have not launched ground operations into the capital, confining major advances to a security buffer in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River. A U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached earlier in 2026 calls for phased Israeli withdrawals in exchange for Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment in designated pilot zones, yet implementation has stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, continued cross-border incidents, and Israeli statements rejecting full pullback. Hezbollah has rejected disarmament demands while maintaining rocket and drone capabilities, sustaining low-level clashes that traders monitor for signs of northern escalation or renewed diplomacy that could alter the probability of a Beirut incursion before any resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces enter Beirut by...?
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
$137,503 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$137,503 Vol.
August 31
$7,590 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli forces have conducted repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in and around Beirut during the 2026 Lebanon war but have not launched ground operations into the capital, confining major advances to a security buffer in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River. A U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached earlier in 2026 calls for phased Israeli withdrawals in exchange for Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment in designated pilot zones, yet implementation has stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, continued cross-border incidents, and Israeli statements rejecting full pullback. Hezbollah has rejected disarmament demands while maintaining rocket and drone capabilities, sustaining low-level clashes that traders monitor for signs of northern escalation or renewed diplomacy that could alter the probability of a Beirut incursion before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$137,503End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli forces have conducted repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in and around Beirut during the 2026 Lebanon war but have not launched ground operations into the capital, confining major advances to a security buffer in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River. A U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached earlier in 2026 calls for phased Israeli withdrawals in exchange for Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment in designated pilot zones, yet implementation has stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, continued cross-border incidents, and Israeli statements rejecting full pullback. Hezbollah has rejected disarmament demands while maintaining rocket and drone capabilities, sustaining low-level clashes that traders monitor for signs of northern escalation or renewed diplomacy that could alter the probability of a Beirut incursion before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$137,503End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli forces have conducted repeated airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in and around Beirut during the 2026 Lebanon war but have not launched ground operations into the capital, confining major advances to a security buffer in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River. A U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached earlier in 2026 calls for phased Israeli withdrawals in exchange for Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment in designated pilot zones, yet implementation has stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, continued cross-border incidents, and Israeli statements rejecting full pullback. Hezbollah has rejected disarmament demands while maintaining rocket and drone capabilities, sustaining low-level clashes that traders monitor for signs of northern escalation or renewed diplomacy that could alter the probability of a Beirut incursion before any resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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