The tight trader consensus around Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (PQ) and Guy Veillette (CAQ) at roughly even implied probabilities reflects the riding’s shift from a comfortable CAQ hold in 2022 to a projected toss-up. Recent models show the two parties separated by just 1–2 points in estimated vote share, with the Conservative candidate drawing notable support and the Liberals trailing further back. The incumbent CAQ member’s retirement opened the seat, while the PQ’s regional organization and the candidate’s background as a family physician have helped close the gap on issues such as healthcare access and local services. With the general election set for October 5 and nominations largely finalized, further movement in provincial polling averages, candidate visibility during the short campaign, or turnout patterns in the Mauricie region could widen the margin before results are known.