Amy Klobuchar’s consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Lisa Demuth in the open-seat race has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic victory with a moderate margin of victory. Recent primary results on August 11 settled the Republican contest in Demuth’s favor despite Mike Lindell’s Trump endorsement and earlier convention dynamics, while Klobuchar secured the Democratic nomination with little opposition. Statewide fundamentals, including Minnesota’s recent presidential results and the absence of an incumbent, continue to support Democratic advantages in turnout and suburban support. With roughly ten weeks until the November 3 election, limited late-cycle shifts in polling averages or major campaign events have kept implied probabilities concentrated on 5–20 point Democratic margins rather than blowouts or Republican upsets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 15-20% 23%
Democrat 5-10% 18%
Democrat 10-15% 16%
Democrat 20-25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Wins
4%
Democrat 0-5%
9%
Democrat 5-10%
18%
Democrat 10-15%
16%
Democrat 15-20%
23%
Democrat 20-25%
14%
Democrat 25-30%
10%
Democrat 30%+
8%
Democrat 15-20% 23%
Democrat 5-10% 18%
Democrat 10-15% 16%
Democrat 20-25% 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Wins
$248 Vol.
4%
Democrat 0-5%
$77 Vol.
9%
Democrat 5-10%
$125 Vol.
18%
Democrat 10-15%
$193 Vol.
16%
Democrat 15-20%
$172 Vol.
23%
Democrat 20-25%
$222 Vol.
14%
Democrat 25-30%
$41 Vol.
10%
Democrat 30%+
$41 Vol.
8%
The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amy Klobuchar’s consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Lisa Demuth in the open-seat race has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic victory with a moderate margin of victory. Recent primary results on August 11 settled the Republican contest in Demuth’s favor despite Mike Lindell’s Trump endorsement and earlier convention dynamics, while Klobuchar secured the Democratic nomination with little opposition. Statewide fundamentals, including Minnesota’s recent presidential results and the absence of an incumbent, continue to support Democratic advantages in turnout and suburban support. With roughly ten weeks until the November 3 election, limited late-cycle shifts in polling averages or major campaign events have kept implied probabilities concentrated on 5–20 point Democratic margins rather than blowouts or Republican upsets.
The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$1,119End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amy Klobuchar’s consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Lisa Demuth in the open-seat race has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic victory with a moderate margin of victory. Recent primary results on August 11 settled the Republican contest in Demuth’s favor despite Mike Lindell’s Trump endorsement and earlier convention dynamics, while Klobuchar secured the Democratic nomination with little opposition. Statewide fundamentals, including Minnesota’s recent presidential results and the absence of an incumbent, continue to support Democratic advantages in turnout and suburban support. With roughly ten weeks until the November 3 election, limited late-cycle shifts in polling averages or major campaign events have kept implied probabilities concentrated on 5–20 point Democratic margins rather than blowouts or Republican upsets.
The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,119End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amy Klobuchar’s consistent double-digit polling lead over Republican nominee Lisa Demuth in the open-seat race has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic victory with a moderate margin of victory. Recent primary results on August 11 settled the Republican contest in Demuth’s favor despite Mike Lindell’s Trump endorsement and earlier convention dynamics, while Klobuchar secured the Democratic nomination with little opposition. Statewide fundamentals, including Minnesota’s recent presidential results and the absence of an incumbent, continue to support Democratic advantages in turnout and suburban support. With roughly ten weeks until the November 3 election, limited late-cycle shifts in polling averages or major campaign events have kept implied probabilities concentrated on 5–20 point Democratic margins rather than blowouts or Republican upsets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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