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icon for MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs

icon for MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs

MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs

$33,703 Vol.

Oct 11, 2026
Polymarket

$33,703 Vol.

Polymarket

Kyle Schwarber

$218 Vol.

26%

Yordan Alvarez

$1,633 Vol.

12%

Matt Olson

$754 Vol.

11%

Shohei Ohtani

$151 Vol.

17%

Hunter Goodman

$3,932 Vol.

4%

Kazuma Okamoto

$645 Vol.

3%

James Wood

$774 Vol.

3%

Miguel Vargas

$1,051 Vol.

3%

Byron Buxton

$3,288 Vol.

3%

Manny Machado

$358 Vol.

3%

Wilson Contreras

$985 Vol.

2%

Christian Walker

$1,429 Vol.

2%

Mike Trout

$427 Vol.

2%

Munetaka Murakami

$493 Vol.

2%

Jordan Walker

$1,415 Vol.

2%

Brandon Lowe

$2,094 Vol.

2%

Colson Montgomery

$2,375 Vol.

2%

Andy Pages

$1,124 Vol.

2%

Nick Kurtz

$800 Vol.

2%

Ketel Marte

$521 Vol.

2%

Ben Rice

$631 Vol.

2%

Dillon Dingler

$1,486 Vol.

1%

Juan Soto

$1,203 Vol.

1%

Bryce Harper

$614 Vol.

1%

Aaron Judge

$554 Vol.

1%

Shea Langeliers

$482 Vol.

1%

Dansby Swanson

$917 Vol.

1%

CJ Abrams

$1,179 Vol.

1%

Pete Alonso

$1,688 Vol.

<1%

Junior Caminero

$485 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with 37-39 home runs through about 120-125 games, ahead of Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, and Hunter Goodman in the low-to-mid 30s. With roughly 40 games remaining, the top contenders need sustained power surges of roughly one home run every three games to reach the 50-home-run threshold, a mark achieved by only a small number of hitters in recent seasons. Schwarber’s recent form, Philadelphia’s lineup protection, and Coors Field advantages for Goodman represent key variables, while injury risks, load management, and September pitching matchups could alter trajectories. Trader consensus reflects the wide-open nature of the chase given current paces and historical difficulty.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,703
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with 37-39 home runs through about 120-125 games, ahead of Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, and Hunter Goodman in the low-to-mid 30s. With roughly 40 games remaining, the top contenders need sustained power surges of roughly one home run every three games to reach the 50-home-run threshold, a mark achieved by only a small number of hitters in recent seasons. Schwarber’s recent form, Philadelphia’s lineup protection, and Coors Field advantages for Goodman represent key variables, while injury risks, load management, and September pitching matchups could alter trajectories. Trader consensus reflects the wide-open nature of the chase given current paces and historical difficulty.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,703
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.mlb.com
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player hits 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is otherwise unclear if the listed player recorded a 50 or more home runs during 2026 MLB regular season within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Junior Caminero" at 27%, followed by "Kyle Schwarber" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" has generated $33.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" is "Junior Caminero" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.