The competitive multi-party contest for the October 5 Quebec general election, with the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead in recent polls but facing gains by the Coalition Avenir Québec and a fragmented field including the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, anchors trader expectations for turnout in the 62-74% range. High levels of undecided voters—often exceeding 40%—combined with advance voting periods, a new electoral map of 127 ridings, and ongoing registration efforts support probabilities clustering near historical benchmarks from 2018 and 2022. The absence of singular high-mobilization issues such as a sovereignty referendum push or major scandals limits upside scenarios above 74%, while standard participation patterns among younger and Indigenous electors cap downside risk below 62%.