Recent polling shows the Quebec election campaign, underway since late August with the vote set for October 5, remains fluid for the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette. A Synopsis survey released August 28 placed the CAQ statistically tied with the PQ at 27-28% after a seven-point surge, driven by stronger support among women and voters over 55, while Léger and other firms continue to show the PQ ahead at around 30%. Seat projections reflect this volatility, with the CAQ typically forecast in the low-to-mid 30s but wide ranges (roughly 8-49 seats) due to regional swings, francophone voter shifts, and vote splitting among federalist parties. The tight market distribution across seat buckets stems from the early campaign stage, uncertain turnout patterns, and potential for late swings in competitive ridings across Montreal, Quebec City, and the regions. Further polling consolidation or events highlighting economic stability versus sovereignty could consolidate or erode the CAQ’s position before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 22%
10-14 22%
15-19 20%
20-24 18%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
3%
5-9
9%
10-14
22%
15-19
20%
20-24
18%
25-29
13%
30+
22%
30+ 22%
10-14 22%
15-19 20%
20-24 18%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$451 Vol.
3%
5-9
$581 Vol.
9%
10-14
$1,525 Vol.
22%
15-19
$800 Vol.
20%
20-24
$558 Vol.
18%
25-29
$611 Vol.
13%
30+
$836 Vol.
22%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Quebec election campaign, underway since late August with the vote set for October 5, remains fluid for the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette. A Synopsis survey released August 28 placed the CAQ statistically tied with the PQ at 27-28% after a seven-point surge, driven by stronger support among women and voters over 55, while Léger and other firms continue to show the PQ ahead at around 30%. Seat projections reflect this volatility, with the CAQ typically forecast in the low-to-mid 30s but wide ranges (roughly 8-49 seats) due to regional swings, francophone voter shifts, and vote splitting among federalist parties. The tight market distribution across seat buckets stems from the early campaign stage, uncertain turnout patterns, and potential for late swings in competitive ridings across Montreal, Quebec City, and the regions. Further polling consolidation or events highlighting economic stability versus sovereignty could consolidate or erode the CAQ’s position before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$5,362End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Quebec election campaign, underway since late August with the vote set for October 5, remains fluid for the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette. A Synopsis survey released August 28 placed the CAQ statistically tied with the PQ at 27-28% after a seven-point surge, driven by stronger support among women and voters over 55, while Léger and other firms continue to show the PQ ahead at around 30%. Seat projections reflect this volatility, with the CAQ typically forecast in the low-to-mid 30s but wide ranges (roughly 8-49 seats) due to regional swings, francophone voter shifts, and vote splitting among federalist parties. The tight market distribution across seat buckets stems from the early campaign stage, uncertain turnout patterns, and potential for late swings in competitive ridings across Montreal, Quebec City, and the regions. Further polling consolidation or events highlighting economic stability versus sovereignty could consolidate or erode the CAQ’s position before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$5,362End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Quebec election campaign, underway since late August with the vote set for October 5, remains fluid for the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette. A Synopsis survey released August 28 placed the CAQ statistically tied with the PQ at 27-28% after a seven-point surge, driven by stronger support among women and voters over 55, while Léger and other firms continue to show the PQ ahead at around 30%. Seat projections reflect this volatility, with the CAQ typically forecast in the low-to-mid 30s but wide ranges (roughly 8-49 seats) due to regional swings, francophone voter shifts, and vote splitting among federalist parties. The tight market distribution across seat buckets stems from the early campaign stage, uncertain turnout patterns, and potential for late swings in competitive ridings across Montreal, Quebec City, and the regions. Further polling consolidation or events highlighting economic stability versus sovereignty could consolidate or erode the CAQ’s position before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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