**Recent polling and the October 5, 2026 Quebec election campaign show the Parti Québécois (PQ) holding a narrow lead in popular vote at roughly 28–30%, translating to median seat projections of 45–48 in models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ.** Traders price the most likely outcome in the low-to-mid 50s because the first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ strength among francophones while the split federalist vote (CAQ, Liberals, PCQ) creates volatility in many ridings. A late-August Synopsis poll for La Presse showed the CAQ closing to within one point overall after a seven-point surge, tightening francophone competition and highlighting new leader Christine Fréchette’s appeal on economic stability amid U.S. trade tensions. Liberals remain concentrated in Montreal but trail elsewhere, while Conservatives threaten pockets in the Quebec City area. With the writ period just beginning, further shifts in francophone support, turnout differentials, or campaign events such as debates could quickly alter PQ seat totals across the wide 29–69 range seen in current forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50-54 23%
<50 20%
60-64 16%
65-69 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
20%
50-54
23%
55-59
13%
60-64
16%
65-69
14%
70-74
12%
75-79
6%
80+
5%
50-54 23%
<50 20%
60-64 16%
65-69 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$830 Vol.
20%
50-54
$861 Vol.
23%
55-59
$423 Vol.
13%
60-64
$377 Vol.
16%
65-69
$2,384 Vol.
14%
70-74
$1,635 Vol.
12%
75-79
$932 Vol.
6%
80+
$839 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and the October 5, 2026 Quebec election campaign show the Parti Québécois (PQ) holding a narrow lead in popular vote at roughly 28–30%, translating to median seat projections of 45–48 in models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ.** Traders price the most likely outcome in the low-to-mid 50s because the first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ strength among francophones while the split federalist vote (CAQ, Liberals, PCQ) creates volatility in many ridings.
A late-August Synopsis poll for La Presse showed the CAQ closing to within one point overall after a seven-point surge, tightening francophone competition and highlighting new leader Christine Fréchette’s appeal on economic stability amid U.S. trade tensions. Liberals remain concentrated in Montreal but trail elsewhere, while Conservatives threaten pockets in the Quebec City area. With the writ period just beginning, further shifts in francophone support, turnout differentials, or campaign events such as debates could quickly alter PQ seat totals across the wide 29–69 range seen in current forecasts.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$8,282End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and the October 5, 2026 Quebec election campaign show the Parti Québécois (PQ) holding a narrow lead in popular vote at roughly 28–30%, translating to median seat projections of 45–48 in models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ.** Traders price the most likely outcome in the low-to-mid 50s because the first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ strength among francophones while the split federalist vote (CAQ, Liberals, PCQ) creates volatility in many ridings.
A late-August Synopsis poll for La Presse showed the CAQ closing to within one point overall after a seven-point surge, tightening francophone competition and highlighting new leader Christine Fréchette’s appeal on economic stability amid U.S. trade tensions. Liberals remain concentrated in Montreal but trail elsewhere, while Conservatives threaten pockets in the Quebec City area. With the writ period just beginning, further shifts in francophone support, turnout differentials, or campaign events such as debates could quickly alter PQ seat totals across the wide 29–69 range seen in current forecasts.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$8,282End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling and the October 5, 2026 Quebec election campaign show the Parti Québécois (PQ) holding a narrow lead in popular vote at roughly 28–30%, translating to median seat projections of 45–48 in models from 338Canada, Poliwave, and The Writ.** Traders price the most likely outcome in the low-to-mid 50s because the first-past-the-post system amplifies PQ strength among francophones while the split federalist vote (CAQ, Liberals, PCQ) creates volatility in many ridings. A late-August Synopsis poll for La Presse showed the CAQ closing to within one point overall after a seven-point surge, tightening francophone competition and highlighting new leader Christine Fréchette’s appeal on economic stability amid U.S. trade tensions. Liberals remain concentrated in Montreal but trail elsewhere, while Conservatives threaten pockets in the Quebec City area. With the writ period just beginning, further shifts in francophone support, turnout differentials, or campaign events such as debates could quickly alter PQ seat totals across the wide 29–69 range seen in current forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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