Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) near 14-15% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with seat models projecting a median of roughly 6-11 seats concentrated in the Quebec City region and surrounding ridings where the party leads or contends in multi-way races. The market’s tight distribution across the 5-13 seat range reflects this regional strength offset by limited support elsewhere, combined with vote fragmentation among the PQ, CAQ, and Liberals that creates many close contests. PCQ leader Éric Duhaime’s campaign emphasis on broad tax reductions and fiscal restraint has stabilized support, yet the race remains fluid because shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in battleground areas could expand or contract the party’s foothold. Late-campaign polling trends or regional swings will likely determine whether totals settle near the lower or upper end of current expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 26%
11-13 21%
5-7 20%
<5 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
15%
5-7
20%
8-10
26%
11-13
21%
14-16
13%
17+
7%
8-10 26%
11-13 21%
5-7 20%
<5 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$1,185 Vol.
15%
5-7
$321 Vol.
20%
8-10
$789 Vol.
26%
11-13
$861 Vol.
21%
14-16
$704 Vol.
13%
17+
$674 Vol.
7%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) near 14-15% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with seat models projecting a median of roughly 6-11 seats concentrated in the Quebec City region and surrounding ridings where the party leads or contends in multi-way races. The market’s tight distribution across the 5-13 seat range reflects this regional strength offset by limited support elsewhere, combined with vote fragmentation among the PQ, CAQ, and Liberals that creates many close contests. PCQ leader Éric Duhaime’s campaign emphasis on broad tax reductions and fiscal restraint has stabilized support, yet the race remains fluid because shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in battleground areas could expand or contract the party’s foothold. Late-campaign polling trends or regional swings will likely determine whether totals settle near the lower or upper end of current expectations.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$4,534End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) near 14-15% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with seat models projecting a median of roughly 6-11 seats concentrated in the Quebec City region and surrounding ridings where the party leads or contends in multi-way races. The market’s tight distribution across the 5-13 seat range reflects this regional strength offset by limited support elsewhere, combined with vote fragmentation among the PQ, CAQ, and Liberals that creates many close contests. PCQ leader Éric Duhaime’s campaign emphasis on broad tax reductions and fiscal restraint has stabilized support, yet the race remains fluid because shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in battleground areas could expand or contract the party’s foothold. Late-campaign polling trends or regional swings will likely determine whether totals settle near the lower or upper end of current expectations.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$4,534End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) near 14-15% provincially ahead of the October 5 election, with seat models projecting a median of roughly 6-11 seats concentrated in the Quebec City region and surrounding ridings where the party leads or contends in multi-way races. The market’s tight distribution across the 5-13 seat range reflects this regional strength offset by limited support elsewhere, combined with vote fragmentation among the PQ, CAQ, and Liberals that creates many close contests. PCQ leader Éric Duhaime’s campaign emphasis on broad tax reductions and fiscal restraint has stabilized support, yet the race remains fluid because shifts in francophone preferences or turnout in battleground areas could expand or contract the party’s foothold. Late-campaign polling trends or regional swings will likely determine whether totals settle near the lower or upper end of current expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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