Rhode Island's strong Democratic lean and limited Republican infrastructure underpin the market's 96.9% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 1994, and recent primary polling shows Democrat Helena Foulkes maintaining an 18- to 22-point lead over incumbent Dan McKee ahead of the September 9 contest, positioning the eventual Democratic nominee for a wide general-election margin. Republican primary candidates trail far behind in overall support, while independent bids register minimal traction. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected primary upset that weakens the Democratic ticket, unusually high turnout favoring Republicans, or late-breaking developments such as scandals or economic shocks that alter voter sentiment in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 96.8%
Republican 1.8%
Independent 1.7%
$66,590 Vol.
$66,590 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
97%
Republican
2%
Independent
2%
Democrat 96.8%
Republican 1.8%
Independent 1.7%
$66,590 Vol.
$66,590 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$54,859 Vol.
97%
Republican
$9,883 Vol.
2%
Independent
$1,849 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Rhode Island's strong Democratic lean and limited Republican infrastructure underpin the market's 96.9% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 1994, and recent primary polling shows Democrat Helena Foulkes maintaining an 18- to 22-point lead over incumbent Dan McKee ahead of the September 9 contest, positioning the eventual Democratic nominee for a wide general-election margin. Republican primary candidates trail far behind in overall support, while independent bids register minimal traction. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected primary upset that weakens the Democratic ticket, unusually high turnout favoring Republicans, or late-breaking developments such as scandals or economic shocks that alter voter sentiment in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$66,590End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Rhode Island's strong Democratic lean and limited Republican infrastructure underpin the market's 96.9% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 1994, and recent primary polling shows Democrat Helena Foulkes maintaining an 18- to 22-point lead over incumbent Dan McKee ahead of the September 9 contest, positioning the eventual Democratic nominee for a wide general-election margin. Republican primary candidates trail far behind in overall support, while independent bids register minimal traction. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected primary upset that weakens the Democratic ticket, unusually high turnout favoring Republicans, or late-breaking developments such as scandals or economic shocks that alter voter sentiment in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$66,590End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rhode Island's strong Democratic lean and limited Republican infrastructure underpin the market's 96.9% probability for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 1994, and recent primary polling shows Democrat Helena Foulkes maintaining an 18- to 22-point lead over incumbent Dan McKee ahead of the September 9 contest, positioning the eventual Democratic nominee for a wide general-election margin. Republican primary candidates trail far behind in overall support, while independent bids register minimal traction. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unexpected primary upset that weakens the Democratic ticket, unusually high turnout favoring Republicans, or late-breaking developments such as scandals or economic shocks that alter voter sentiment in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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