Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each near 23–32 percent across multiple surveys. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, while One Nation’s August leadership change and campaign activity have sustained its elevated support. This three-way split, combined with uncertain preference flows and recent electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, creates wide scope for different parties to finish second in the Legislative Assembly depending on regional swings and how minor-party votes distribute. Late-campaign events, final preference negotiations, or shifts in any of the three leading parties could quickly reorder the seat rankings and alter second-place outcomes before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 10.4%
One Nation 4.7%
Greens <1%
Labor 0
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
10%
One Nation
5%
Greens
1%
Labor
45%
Liberal–National 10.4%
One Nation 4.7%
Greens <1%
Labor 0
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$253 Vol.
10%
One Nation
$410 Vol.
5%
Greens
$208 Vol.
1%
Labor
$784 Vol.
45%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each near 23–32 percent across multiple surveys. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, while One Nation’s August leadership change and campaign activity have sustained its elevated support. This three-way split, combined with uncertain preference flows and recent electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, creates wide scope for different parties to finish second in the Legislative Assembly depending on regional swings and how minor-party votes distribute. Late-campaign events, final preference negotiations, or shifts in any of the three leading parties could quickly reorder the seat rankings and alter second-place outcomes before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,655End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each near 23–32 percent across multiple surveys. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, while One Nation’s August leadership change and campaign activity have sustained its elevated support. This three-way split, combined with uncertain preference flows and recent electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, creates wide scope for different parties to finish second in the Legislative Assembly depending on regional swings and how minor-party votes distribute. Late-campaign events, final preference negotiations, or shifts in any of the three leading parties could quickly reorder the seat rankings and alter second-place outcomes before election day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$1,655End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 28 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with Labor, the Liberal–National Coalition, and One Nation each near 23–32 percent across multiple surveys. Labor’s July leadership transition to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, while One Nation’s August leadership change and campaign activity have sustained its elevated support. This three-way split, combined with uncertain preference flows and recent electoral reforms ending group voting tickets, creates wide scope for different parties to finish second in the Legislative Assembly depending on regional swings and how minor-party votes distribute. Late-campaign events, final preference negotiations, or shifts in any of the three leading parties could quickly reorder the seat rankings and alter second-place outcomes before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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