Recent polling through mid-August shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow-to-clear two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 to 45-48, driven by consistent primary support around 27-32% for the Coalition against Labor’s 23-26%. One Nation’s primary vote near 22-23% fragments the right but flows heavily to the Coalition, while the Greens remain at 12-13%. Labor’s late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, with the party’s primary vote continuing to slip amid 12 years of incumbency. The November 28 election remains three months away, leaving scope for late shifts in preference flows or turnout among minor-party voters to alter seat outcomes in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Trader consensus on Liberal-National reflects these polling trends and historical preference patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 66%
Labor 22%
One Nation 4.3%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
59%
Labor
22%
One Nation
4%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 66%
Labor 22%
One Nation 4.3%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$5,455 Vol.
59%
Labor
$1,528 Vol.
22%
One Nation
$2,204 Vol.
4%
Greens
$165 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling through mid-August shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow-to-clear two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 to 45-48, driven by consistent primary support around 27-32% for the Coalition against Labor’s 23-26%. One Nation’s primary vote near 22-23% fragments the right but flows heavily to the Coalition, while the Greens remain at 12-13%. Labor’s late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, with the party’s primary vote continuing to slip amid 12 years of incumbency. The November 28 election remains three months away, leaving scope for late shifts in preference flows or turnout among minor-party voters to alter seat outcomes in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Trader consensus on Liberal-National reflects these polling trends and historical preference patterns.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$9,351End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling through mid-August shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow-to-clear two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 to 45-48, driven by consistent primary support around 27-32% for the Coalition against Labor’s 23-26%. One Nation’s primary vote near 22-23% fragments the right but flows heavily to the Coalition, while the Greens remain at 12-13%. Labor’s late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, with the party’s primary vote continuing to slip amid 12 years of incumbency. The November 28 election remains three months away, leaving scope for late shifts in preference flows or turnout among minor-party voters to alter seat outcomes in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Trader consensus on Liberal-National reflects these polling trends and historical preference patterns.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$9,351End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling through mid-August shows the Liberal-National Coalition holding a narrow-to-clear two-party preferred lead over Labor of 52-55 to 45-48, driven by consistent primary support around 27-32% for the Coalition against Labor’s 23-26%. One Nation’s primary vote near 22-23% fragments the right but flows heavily to the Coalition, while the Greens remain at 12-13%. Labor’s late-July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll produced no measurable bounce, with the party’s primary vote continuing to slip amid 12 years of incumbency. The November 28 election remains three months away, leaving scope for late shifts in preference flows or turnout among minor-party voters to alter seat outcomes in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Trader consensus on Liberal-National reflects these polling trends and historical preference patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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