Recent Victorian polls have shown a fragmented primary vote driven by One Nation’s surge to 23-27 percent support, the Coalition holding 26-30 percent, and Labor slipping to 21-26 percent, with the Greens around 13-15 percent. This three-way split among major and minor parties, combined with elevated “other” support exceeding 40 percent in some surveys, has left the identity of the third-placed party highly uncertain ahead of the November 28 election. Trader pricing reflects this volatility, with multiple minor parties and One Nation viewed as plausible contenders for third while the Coalition and Labor are seen as more likely to occupy the top two spots. Late-campaign shifts in voter turnout or preference flows could still alter the final ordering.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Labor 48%
One Nation 43%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Greens 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
48%
One Nation
43%
Liberal–National
4%
Greens
4%
Legalise Cannabis
4%
Animal Justice
4%
Libertarian
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
4%
Labor 48%
One Nation 43%
Liberal–National 4.0%
Greens 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Labor
$4 Vol.
48%
One Nation
$0 Vol.
43%
Liberal–National
$0 Vol.
4%
Greens
$0 Vol.
4%
Legalise Cannabis
$0 Vol.
4%
Animal Justice
$0 Vol.
4%
Libertarian
$0 Vol.
4%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polls have shown a fragmented primary vote driven by One Nation’s surge to 23-27 percent support, the Coalition holding 26-30 percent, and Labor slipping to 21-26 percent, with the Greens around 13-15 percent. This three-way split among major and minor parties, combined with elevated “other” support exceeding 40 percent in some surveys, has left the identity of the third-placed party highly uncertain ahead of the November 28 election. Trader pricing reflects this volatility, with multiple minor parties and One Nation viewed as plausible contenders for third while the Coalition and Labor are seen as more likely to occupy the top two spots. Late-campaign shifts in voter turnout or preference flows could still alter the final ordering.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$4End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent Victorian polls have shown a fragmented primary vote driven by One Nation’s surge to 23-27 percent support, the Coalition holding 26-30 percent, and Labor slipping to 21-26 percent, with the Greens around 13-15 percent. This three-way split among major and minor parties, combined with elevated “other” support exceeding 40 percent in some surveys, has left the identity of the third-placed party highly uncertain ahead of the November 28 election. Trader pricing reflects this volatility, with multiple minor parties and One Nation viewed as plausible contenders for third while the Coalition and Labor are seen as more likely to occupy the top two spots. Late-campaign shifts in voter turnout or preference flows could still alter the final ordering.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$4End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Victorian polls have shown a fragmented primary vote driven by One Nation’s surge to 23-27 percent support, the Coalition holding 26-30 percent, and Labor slipping to 21-26 percent, with the Greens around 13-15 percent. This three-way split among major and minor parties, combined with elevated “other” support exceeding 40 percent in some surveys, has left the identity of the third-placed party highly uncertain ahead of the November 28 election. Trader pricing reflects this volatility, with multiple minor parties and One Nation viewed as plausible contenders for third while the Coalition and Labor are seen as more likely to occupy the top two spots. Late-campaign shifts in voter turnout or preference flows could still alter the final ordering.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
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Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
59%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
60%
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