Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead of 51–55% over Labor, driven by voter concerns over cost of living and crime. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s elevation as One Nation leader in early August, have not reversed Coalition momentum in primary voting intentions. One Nation’s strong primary support near 23% has created a three-way primary contest but limited its outright win probability due to preference flows. Traders price the Coalition highest at 65.5% as the most likely to secure the most seats, with Labor at 22.5% reflecting its current underperformance relative to historical benchmarks. Minor parties and independents register lower probabilities consistent with historical seat outcomes in the Legislative Assembly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLiberal–National 66%
Labor 22%
One Nation 5.5%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
59%
Labor
22%
One Nation
6%
Greens
<1%
Liberal–National 66%
Labor 22%
One Nation 5.5%
Greens <1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$5,455 Vol.
59%
Labor
$1,528 Vol.
22%
One Nation
$2,137 Vol.
6%
Greens
$165 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead of 51–55% over Labor, driven by voter concerns over cost of living and crime. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s elevation as One Nation leader in early August, have not reversed Coalition momentum in primary voting intentions. One Nation’s strong primary support near 23% has created a three-way primary contest but limited its outright win probability due to preference flows. Traders price the Coalition highest at 65.5% as the most likely to secure the most seats, with Labor at 22.5% reflecting its current underperformance relative to historical benchmarks. Minor parties and independents register lower probabilities consistent with historical seat outcomes in the Legislative Assembly.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$9,284End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead of 51–55% over Labor, driven by voter concerns over cost of living and crime. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s elevation as One Nation leader in early August, have not reversed Coalition momentum in primary voting intentions. One Nation’s strong primary support near 23% has created a three-way primary contest but limited its outright win probability due to preference flows. Traders price the Coalition highest at 65.5% as the most likely to secure the most seats, with Labor at 22.5% reflecting its current underperformance relative to historical benchmarks. Minor parties and independents register lower probabilities consistent with historical seat outcomes in the Legislative Assembly.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$9,284End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a narrow two-party-preferred lead of 51–55% over Labor, driven by voter concerns over cost of living and crime. Leadership changes, including Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s elevation as One Nation leader in early August, have not reversed Coalition momentum in primary voting intentions. One Nation’s strong primary support near 23% has created a three-way primary contest but limited its outright win probability due to preference flows. Traders price the Coalition highest at 65.5% as the most likely to secure the most seats, with Labor at 22.5% reflecting its current underperformance relative to historical benchmarks. Minor parties and independents register lower probabilities consistent with historical seat outcomes in the Legislative Assembly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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