The 25th Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing its full term, setting legislative elections for October 27. Polls show the anti-Netanyahu bloc hovering near or just above the 61-seat majority threshold, with Yashar and Together parties leading Likud but facing challenges in assembling a stable coalition amid fragmented blocs and resistance to Haredi or Arab party inclusion. New Knesset swearing-in is expected in mid-November, leaving roughly six weeks for negotiations before the December 31 cutoff. Israeli coalition formation has historically required extended talks, sometimes spanning months, especially in close races that risk minority governments or renewed deadlock. Traders price the implied probability of a successful confidence vote by year-end at around 40 percent for Yes, reflecting the narrow post-election window and structural barriers to rapid government constitution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
40% chance
NEW
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Dec 31, 2026
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 25th Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing its full term, setting legislative elections for October 27. Polls show the anti-Netanyahu bloc hovering near or just above the 61-seat majority threshold, with Yashar and Together parties leading Likud but facing challenges in assembling a stable coalition amid fragmented blocs and resistance to Haredi or Arab party inclusion. New Knesset swearing-in is expected in mid-November, leaving roughly six weeks for negotiations before the December 31 cutoff. Israeli coalition formation has historically required extended talks, sometimes spanning months, especially in close races that risk minority governments or renewed deadlock. Traders price the implied probability of a successful confidence vote by year-end at around 40 percent for Yes, reflecting the narrow post-election window and structural barriers to rapid government constitution.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,499End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 25th Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing its full term, setting legislative elections for October 27. Polls show the anti-Netanyahu bloc hovering near or just above the 61-seat majority threshold, with Yashar and Together parties leading Likud but facing challenges in assembling a stable coalition amid fragmented blocs and resistance to Haredi or Arab party inclusion. New Knesset swearing-in is expected in mid-November, leaving roughly six weeks for negotiations before the December 31 cutoff. Israeli coalition formation has historically required extended talks, sometimes spanning months, especially in close races that risk minority governments or renewed deadlock. Traders price the implied probability of a successful confidence vote by year-end at around 40 percent for Yes, reflecting the narrow post-election window and structural barriers to rapid government constitution.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,499End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 25th Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing its full term, setting legislative elections for October 27. Polls show the anti-Netanyahu bloc hovering near or just above the 61-seat majority threshold, with Yashar and Together parties leading Likud but facing challenges in assembling a stable coalition amid fragmented blocs and resistance to Haredi or Arab party inclusion. New Knesset swearing-in is expected in mid-November, leaving roughly six weeks for negotiations before the December 31 cutoff. Israeli coalition formation has historically required extended talks, sometimes spanning months, especially in close races that risk minority governments or renewed deadlock. Traders price the implied probability of a successful confidence vote by year-end at around 40 percent for Yes, reflecting the narrow post-election window and structural barriers to rapid government constitution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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