Ongoing diplomatic efforts to implement the second phase of the October 2025 ceasefire remain stalled over sequencing of Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from the Yellow Line, which now encompasses roughly 60 percent of Gaza. Israeli forces have conducted targeted airstrikes and limited raids against Hamas operatives in recent weeks, including operations that crossed ceasefire lines, while receiving orders in mid-August to halt further westward expansion of the security zone following meetings between Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. envoy Jared Kushner. Netanyahu has conditioned any pullback on full demilitarization, including tunnels and heavy weapons, and directed forces to reach up to 70 percent control if needed. Hamas has signaled conditional acceptance of phased disarmament but ties it to Israeli concessions. These dynamics, alongside reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities in uncontrolled areas, shape trader assessments of escalation risks before any specified deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$751,916 Vol.
Oct 30, 2025
December 31
11%
$751,916 Vol.
December 31
$102,285 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts to implement the second phase of the October 2025 ceasefire remain stalled over sequencing of Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from the Yellow Line, which now encompasses roughly 60 percent of Gaza. Israeli forces have conducted targeted airstrikes and limited raids against Hamas operatives in recent weeks, including operations that crossed ceasefire lines, while receiving orders in mid-August to halt further westward expansion of the security zone following meetings between Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. envoy Jared Kushner. Netanyahu has conditioned any pullback on full demilitarization, including tunnels and heavy weapons, and directed forces to reach up to 70 percent control if needed. Hamas has signaled conditional acceptance of phased disarmament but ties it to Israeli concessions. These dynamics, alongside reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities in uncontrolled areas, shape trader assessments of escalation risks before any specified deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$751,916End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts to implement the second phase of the October 2025 ceasefire remain stalled over sequencing of Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from the Yellow Line, which now encompasses roughly 60 percent of Gaza. Israeli forces have conducted targeted airstrikes and limited raids against Hamas operatives in recent weeks, including operations that crossed ceasefire lines, while receiving orders in mid-August to halt further westward expansion of the security zone following meetings between Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. envoy Jared Kushner. Netanyahu has conditioned any pullback on full demilitarization, including tunnels and heavy weapons, and directed forces to reach up to 70 percent control if needed. Hamas has signaled conditional acceptance of phased disarmament but ties it to Israeli concessions. These dynamics, alongside reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities in uncontrolled areas, shape trader assessments of escalation risks before any specified deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$751,916End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts to implement the second phase of the October 2025 ceasefire remain stalled over sequencing of Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal from the Yellow Line, which now encompasses roughly 60 percent of Gaza. Israeli forces have conducted targeted airstrikes and limited raids against Hamas operatives in recent weeks, including operations that crossed ceasefire lines, while receiving orders in mid-August to halt further westward expansion of the security zone following meetings between Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. envoy Jared Kushner. Netanyahu has conditioned any pullback on full demilitarization, including tunnels and heavy weapons, and directed forces to reach up to 70 percent control if needed. Hamas has signaled conditional acceptance of phased disarmament but ties it to Israeli concessions. These dynamics, alongside reports of Hamas rebuilding capabilities in uncontrolled areas, shape trader assessments of escalation risks before any specified deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions