**Michigan voters will decide an automatic constitutional convention question on the November 3, 2026 ballot, as required every 16 years by Article XII of the 1963 state constitution.** This Proposal 1 asks whether to convene elected delegates in 2027 to draft a general revision, subject to later voter ratification. Traders assign a 94% implied probability to rejection, consistent with historical outcomes: voters defeated similar measures by wide margins in 1978 (77% no), 1994 (72% no), and 2010 (66.6% no). Organized opposition from coalitions including education, labor, and good-government groups has mobilized against the measure, citing risks that a convention could reopen debates on provisions such as redistricting, reproductive rights, and education funding. Limited Republican legislative support for targeted revisions has not generated broad momentum or polling shifts favoring approval. As of mid-August 2026, the question remains certified on the ballot with no procedural changes or major campaign developments altering the established pattern of voter caution toward a full rewrite. Trader consensus reflects this precedent and active resistance, producing low odds of passage.