Recent polling for Quebec’s October 5 provincial election shows negligible support for the Parti Vert du Québec, with the party absent from major surveys or registering at 1% or below in earlier readings. Seat projections from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar models allocate expected ridings among the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, reflecting concentrated francophone and regional voting patterns that leave little room for smaller parties without incumbency or established infrastructure. No recent by-elections, leadership announcements, or policy shifts have altered this positioning, and nomination deadlines have passed without indications of competitive PVQ candidacies in winnable districts. Trader consensus on a “No” outcome aligns with these structural barriers and the absence of measurable momentum in the final campaign weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling for Quebec’s October 5 provincial election shows negligible support for the Parti Vert du Québec, with the party absent from major surveys or registering at 1% or below in earlier readings. Seat projections from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar models allocate expected ridings among the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, reflecting concentrated francophone and regional voting patterns that leave little room for smaller parties without incumbency or established infrastructure. No recent by-elections, leadership announcements, or policy shifts have altered this positioning, and nomination deadlines have passed without indications of competitive PVQ candidacies in winnable districts. Trader consensus on a “No” outcome aligns with these structural barriers and the absence of measurable momentum in the final campaign weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$203End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling for Quebec’s October 5 provincial election shows negligible support for the Parti Vert du Québec, with the party absent from major surveys or registering at 1% or below in earlier readings. Seat projections from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar models allocate expected ridings among the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, reflecting concentrated francophone and regional voting patterns that leave little room for smaller parties without incumbency or established infrastructure. No recent by-elections, leadership announcements, or policy shifts have altered this positioning, and nomination deadlines have passed without indications of competitive PVQ candidacies in winnable districts. Trader consensus on a “No” outcome aligns with these structural barriers and the absence of measurable momentum in the final campaign weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$203End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Quebec’s October 5 provincial election shows negligible support for the Parti Vert du Québec, with the party absent from major surveys or registering at 1% or below in earlier readings. Seat projections from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar models allocate expected ridings among the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire, reflecting concentrated francophone and regional voting patterns that leave little room for smaller parties without incumbency or established infrastructure. No recent by-elections, leadership announcements, or policy shifts have altered this positioning, and nomination deadlines have passed without indications of competitive PVQ candidacies in winnable districts. Trader consensus on a “No” outcome aligns with these structural barriers and the absence of measurable momentum in the final campaign weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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