Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) leading with roughly 29% support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 22%, amid a fragmented field that includes the Conservatives and Québec solidaire. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and others place the PQ on track for a plurality or minority government in the 44th National Assembly, typically in the mid-40s of 127 seats—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The CAQ has narrowed the gap in early campaign polling while the Liberals have lost ground, with high levels of undecided voters and regional riding dynamics limiting the PQ’s path. Trader consensus reflected in the 73.5% probability on “No” aligns with these aggregates, which indicate structural barriers to a PQ majority despite its francophone support base.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
26% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) leading with roughly 29% support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 22%, amid a fragmented field that includes the Conservatives and Québec solidaire. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and others place the PQ on track for a plurality or minority government in the 44th National Assembly, typically in the mid-40s of 127 seats—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The CAQ has narrowed the gap in early campaign polling while the Liberals have lost ground, with high levels of undecided voters and regional riding dynamics limiting the PQ’s path. Trader consensus reflected in the 73.5% probability on “No” aligns with these aggregates, which indicate structural barriers to a PQ majority despite its francophone support base.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$1,002End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) leading with roughly 29% support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 22%, amid a fragmented field that includes the Conservatives and Québec solidaire. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and others place the PQ on track for a plurality or minority government in the 44th National Assembly, typically in the mid-40s of 127 seats—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The CAQ has narrowed the gap in early campaign polling while the Liberals have lost ground, with high levels of undecided voters and regional riding dynamics limiting the PQ’s path. Trader consensus reflected in the 73.5% probability on “No” aligns with these aggregates, which indicate structural barriers to a PQ majority despite its francophone support base.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$1,002End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election shows the Parti Québécois (PQ) leading with roughly 29% support, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party at 22%, amid a fragmented field that includes the Conservatives and Québec solidaire. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and others place the PQ on track for a plurality or minority government in the 44th National Assembly, typically in the mid-40s of 127 seats—well short of the 64 needed for a majority. The CAQ has narrowed the gap in early campaign polling while the Liberals have lost ground, with high levels of undecided voters and regional riding dynamics limiting the PQ’s path. Trader consensus reflected in the 73.5% probability on “No” aligns with these aggregates, which indicate structural barriers to a PQ majority despite its francophone support base.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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