The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing widespread early-2026 protests through security force mobilization and crackdowns has anchored trader consensus that it will not collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions and military engagements earlier in the year, interim structures under the Supreme National Security Council have sustained control without major defections or loss of territory. Economic pressures including inflation persist, yet recent public executions of protesters in July triggered only localized unrest rather than national momentum. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the regime's history of weathering sanctions, internal dissent, and external strikes. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include coordinated security force defections, rapid escalation of protests amid new triggers, or unforeseen leadership vacuums before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1% chance
$1,733,864 Vol.
$1,733,864 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
1% chance
$1,733,864 Vol.
$1,733,864 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing widespread early-2026 protests through security force mobilization and crackdowns has anchored trader consensus that it will not collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions and military engagements earlier in the year, interim structures under the Supreme National Security Council have sustained control without major defections or loss of territory. Economic pressures including inflation persist, yet recent public executions of protesters in July triggered only localized unrest rather than national momentum. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the regime's history of weathering sanctions, internal dissent, and external strikes. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include coordinated security force defections, rapid escalation of protests amid new triggers, or unforeseen leadership vacuums before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,733,864End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing widespread early-2026 protests through security force mobilization and crackdowns has anchored trader consensus that it will not collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions and military engagements earlier in the year, interim structures under the Supreme National Security Council have sustained control without major defections or loss of territory. Economic pressures including inflation persist, yet recent public executions of protesters in July triggered only localized unrest rather than national momentum. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the regime's history of weathering sanctions, internal dissent, and external strikes. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include coordinated security force defections, rapid escalation of protests amid new triggers, or unforeseen leadership vacuums before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,733,864End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after suppressing widespread early-2026 protests through security force mobilization and crackdowns has anchored trader consensus that it will not collapse by September 30. Following leadership transitions and military engagements earlier in the year, interim structures under the Supreme National Security Council have sustained control without major defections or loss of territory. Economic pressures including inflation persist, yet recent public executions of protesters in July triggered only localized unrest rather than national momentum. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the regime's history of weathering sanctions, internal dissent, and external strikes. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include coordinated security force defections, rapid escalation of protests amid new triggers, or unforeseen leadership vacuums before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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