Wyoming’s strongly Republican political environment underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee in the open 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis is retiring, and voters in the August 18 primaries selected U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman, who prevailed decisively in the Republican contest, to face former state Representative James W. Byrd on the Democratic side. The state’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican dominance in statewide contests, and absence of Democratic Senate wins since 1970 have produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or a major unforeseen development affecting the nominees before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$16,713 Vol.
$16,713 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
3%
$16,713 Vol.
$16,713 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$11,081 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$5,632 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Wyoming’s strongly Republican political environment underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee in the open 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis is retiring, and voters in the August 18 primaries selected U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman, who prevailed decisively in the Republican contest, to face former state Representative James W. Byrd on the Democratic side. The state’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican dominance in statewide contests, and absence of Democratic Senate wins since 1970 have produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or a major unforeseen development affecting the nominees before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$16,713End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Wyoming’s strongly Republican political environment underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee in the open 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis is retiring, and voters in the August 18 primaries selected U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman, who prevailed decisively in the Republican contest, to face former state Representative James W. Byrd on the Democratic side. The state’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican dominance in statewide contests, and absence of Democratic Senate wins since 1970 have produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or a major unforeseen development affecting the nominees before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Wyoming U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$16,713End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wyoming’s strongly Republican political environment underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward the GOP nominee in the open 2026 Senate race. Incumbent Cynthia Lummis is retiring, and voters in the August 18 primaries selected U.S. Representative Harriet Hageman, who prevailed decisively in the Republican contest, to face former state Representative James W. Byrd on the Democratic side. The state’s partisan voting index, consistent Republican dominance in statewide contests, and absence of Democratic Senate wins since 1970 have produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or a major unforeseen development affecting the nominees before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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