Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 82% in the CA-14 special election market following her 53.1% to 46.9% runoff victory over Melissa Hernandez on August 18, with the Associated Press calling the race on August 20 after mail ballots expanded her narrow initial margin. The outcome stems from Wahab’s stronger performance in the June 16 top-two primary and consistent support among progressive and labor-aligned voters in the East Bay district vacated by Eric Swalwell. Hernandez, backed by significant outside spending from pro-Israel groups including AIPAC’s United Democracy Project, narrowed the gap in the final weeks but fell short as late-counted ballots favored Wahab. The 15.3% implied probability on Hernandez reflects the unexpectedly competitive finish in a heavily Democratic district, while other listed candidates trail due to their elimination in the primary phase. Traders are pricing in Wahab’s certification as the winner to serve the remainder of the term through January 2027.