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Politics·Midterms

CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)

icon for CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)
Politics·Midterms

CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)

Polymarket

$15,659 Vol.

Polymarket

$15,659 Vol.

Angela Gonzales-Torres

$4,540 Vol.

85%

Jimmy Gomez

$11,119 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The House Ethics Committee investigation into incumbent Jimmy Gomez over sexual misconduct allegations has emerged as the dominant factor shifting trader sentiment in California's 34th congressional district. Both Gomez and challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in the solidly Democratic seat, but the probe has elevated Gonzales-Torres to an 85% implied probability of victory. Traders appear to view the ethics scrutiny as a significant headwind for the five-term representative ahead of the November general election, consistent with historical patterns where similar allegations have eroded incumbent support in low-turnout primaries and general elections. No other candidates remain in contention.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,659
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The House Ethics Committee investigation into incumbent Jimmy Gomez over sexual misconduct allegations has emerged as the dominant factor shifting trader sentiment in California's 34th congressional district. Both Gomez and challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in the solidly Democratic seat, but the probe has elevated Gonzales-Torres to an 85% implied probability of victory. Traders appear to view the ethics scrutiny as a significant headwind for the five-term representative ahead of the November general election, consistent with historical patterns where similar allegations have eroded incumbent support in low-turnout primaries and general elections. No other candidates remain in contention.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,659
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Angela Gonzales-Torres" at 85%, followed by "Jimmy Gomez" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)" has generated $15.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)" is "Angela Gonzales-Torres" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jimmy Gomez" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.