Ken Calvert holds the leading position in the CA-40 general election contest due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 34.9% of the vote compared to Young Kim’s 20.6%, along with representing a larger share of the newly redrawn district following Proposition 50. Both Republican incumbents advanced to face each other on November 3, 2026, in a solidly Republican district, with Calvert’s decades-long tenure since 1992 providing greater name recognition and established support networks. Recent second-quarter fundraising reports show Kim raising nearly twice as much as Calvert, yet trader consensus continues to price Calvert substantially higher, reflecting primary results and structural advantages in a race with limited Democratic involvement after the primary. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ken Calvert
76%
Young Kim
22%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ken Calvert
$1,021 Vol.
76%
Young Kim
$791 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ken Calvert holds the leading position in the CA-40 general election contest due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 34.9% of the vote compared to Young Kim’s 20.6%, along with representing a larger share of the newly redrawn district following Proposition 50. Both Republican incumbents advanced to face each other on November 3, 2026, in a solidly Republican district, with Calvert’s decades-long tenure since 1992 providing greater name recognition and established support networks. Recent second-quarter fundraising reports show Kim raising nearly twice as much as Calvert, yet trader consensus continues to price Calvert substantially higher, reflecting primary results and structural advantages in a race with limited Democratic involvement after the primary. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ken Calvert holds the leading position in the CA-40 general election contest due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 34.9% of the vote compared to Young Kim’s 20.6%, along with representing a larger share of the newly redrawn district following Proposition 50. Both Republican incumbents advanced to face each other on November 3, 2026, in a solidly Republican district, with Calvert’s decades-long tenure since 1992 providing greater name recognition and established support networks. Recent second-quarter fundraising reports show Kim raising nearly twice as much as Calvert, yet trader consensus continues to price Calvert substantially higher, reflecting primary results and structural advantages in a race with limited Democratic involvement after the primary. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ken Calvert holds the leading position in the CA-40 general election contest due to his stronger performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where he captured 34.9% of the vote compared to Young Kim’s 20.6%, along with representing a larger share of the newly redrawn district following Proposition 50. Both Republican incumbents advanced to face each other on November 3, 2026, in a solidly Republican district, with Calvert’s decades-long tenure since 1992 providing greater name recognition and established support networks. Recent second-quarter fundraising reports show Kim raising nearly twice as much as Calvert, yet trader consensus continues to price Calvert substantially higher, reflecting primary results and structural advantages in a race with limited Democratic involvement after the primary. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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