In Georgia’s 13th congressional district special election to fill the vacancy left by the late Representative David Scott, trader consensus priced an outright first-round majority at 96.7 percent because the heavily Democratic Atlanta-area seat featured a fragmented but low-turnout field in which Marcye Scott’s name recognition as the former incumbent’s daughter was expected to consolidate sufficient Democratic support to exceed 50 percent on July 28. Georgia election rules place all candidates on a single ballot, triggering a runoff only if no one reaches a majority; historical patterns in similar safe Democratic districts showed rapid consolidation around the best-known contender once early voting and name identification took effect. Republican candidates were projected to capture well under 15 percent combined, further reducing the threshold needed for a Democratic frontrunner to clear 50 percent. Even at this elevated implied probability, realistic variables that could still have prevented an outright winner included unexpected vote splitting among multiple Democratic entrants, higher-than-anticipated Republican participation, or last-minute shifts in turnout driven by local mobilization efforts. The actual July 28 results—Scott at 46 percent and Everton Blair at 37 percent—illustrate how modest deviations from these assumptions produced the runoff now set for August 25.