Recent developments center on the fragile US-brokered ceasefire and Board of Peace framework, which authorize an International Stabilization Force (ISF) from non-Israeli, non-Palestinian contributors to oversee disarmament, security, and transition in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s August 2026 public rejection of the 15-point plan—insisting on full Hamas disarmament before any IDF withdrawal—has stalled ISF deployment, which remains conditional on verifiable decommissioning steps and has seen only limited pledges and planning activity. Ongoing Israeli strikes, Hamas refusals to fully disarm without withdrawal progress, and continued skirmishes have reinforced trader skepticism about near-term foreign security operations on the ground. Key upcoming factors include any renewed diplomatic push before the August 31, 2026 resolution window and further implementation reports under the related UN framework.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo foreign troops officially enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and preparations
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Despite troop buildups and planning, no foreign military personnel officially entered Gaza by late August 2026, leading to a collapse in market confidence for foreign intervention by the deadline.
Israeli military operations continue in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and no foreign intervention
Israeli forces continued military operations in Gaza, including attacks on civilian infrastructure, with no reports of foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza territory, maintaining low market expectations for foreign intervention.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashal rejects disarmament and foreign intervention in Gaza
Senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal publicly rejected calls for disarmament and foreign intervention, emphasizing Palestinian self-governance and resistance rights, reinforcing political obstacles to foreign troop deployment and contributing to market pessimism.
Israeli military reports three soldiers killed in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Israeli military reported casualties in Gaza, indicating ongoing hostilities but no foreign military or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, which contributed to the market's decline in probability for foreign intervention.
International Stabilization Force led by US builds up troops along Gaza border
International security forces led by the US initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border in preparation for potential entry to carry out civil and security rehabilitation efforts, but no official deployment into Gaza occurred yet.
US-led international security forces build up on Gaza border preparing for entry
December 31 dips to 27%1%
International security forces led by the US began a major troop buildup along the Gaza border in preparation for civil and security operations, indicating progress toward foreign intervention but no confirmed entry yet.
US provides $206 million for Gaza peacekeeping force amid ongoing conflict
December 31 dips to 27%3%
The US announced significant funding for the Gaza peacekeeping force, reinforcing the plan for foreign intervention despite ongoing hostilities and political challenges, influencing market sentiment.
International security forces led by US build up on Gaza border preparing for entry
International security forces led by the US initiated a major build-up of troops along the Gaza border in preparation for civil and security rehabilitation efforts, but no official entry into Gaza occurred, maintaining market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Four countries including Morocco agree to send forces to Gaza stabilization force
Hebrew media reported that Morocco, Kosovo, Albania, and Kazakhstan gave preliminary approval to send military and security forces to the international stabilization force in Gaza, signaling expanding international commitments but no confirmed deployment yet.
US administration confirms funding for Gaza peacekeeping force to Congress
The US administration officially notified Congress of funding allocation exceeding $206 million for the Gaza peacekeeping force, reinforcing commitment to the plan despite political and operational delays in deployment.
US announces $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force despite stalled deployment
On August 19, the US administration informed Congress it would provide over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operational costs, signaling determination to press ahead with the Gaza peacekeeping plan despite delays and lack of troop deployment into Gaza.
Uganda and Burundi representatives visit Rafah amid talks to join Gaza stabilization force
Military officials from Uganda and Burundi visited the Rafah border amid discussions to join the International Stabilization Force, showing expanding international interest but no confirmed deployment inside Gaza yet.
Uganda approves troop deployment to Gaza as part of international force
Ugandan parliament approved sending troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, marking a formal commitment to the multinational peacekeeping effort. Despite this, actual deployment into Gaza remained pending, reflecting ongoing delays and limited foreign presence on the ground.
Israeli airstrike kills six in Gaza port amid ongoing conflict
December 31 rises to 30%2%
Israeli airstrikes killed six people in Gaza City port, highlighting ongoing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts, which dampened prospects for foreign peacekeeping deployment and contributed to market declines.
No foreign troops have entered Gaza despite peacekeeping plans and approvals
August 31 dips to 2%4%
By mid-August 2026, despite approvals and plans for the International Stabilization Force, no foreign military personnel had physically entered Gaza for operational roles. Israeli political reluctance, ongoing hostilities, and incomplete legal frameworks prevented deployment, leading to market probabilities for foreign intervention dropping to near zero.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the international stabilization force and ensure humanitarian aid delivery, reflecting regional pressure to move forward with foreign intervention. However, Israeli government had not granted final approval, keeping deployment uncertain and market prices low.
Eight Arab and Islamic nations condemn Israel for obstructing Gaza peace efforts
The UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and others condemned Israel for rejecting renewed efforts to implement Trump's Gaza peace plan, highlighting diplomatic deadlock and reducing expectations of foreign intervention.
Arab countries condemn Israel for obstructing US Gaza peace plan
December 31 dips to 28%1%
Several Arab countries including Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE condemned Israel's rejection of the US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan, highlighting regional tensions and opposition to Israel's policies. This political opposition contributed to doubts about the feasibility of foreign peacekeeping deployment in Gaza.
Reports indicate US-led Board of Peace struggling to deploy pledged peacekeepers to Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The US-led Board of Peace faced political reluctance from Israel and delays in signing Status of Forces Agreements, stalling deployment of foreign peacekeepers to Gaza. This dampened market optimism for foreign intervention by the end of 2026.
Hamas Rejects Disarmament and Foreign Security Presence in Gaza
August 31 dips to 2%4%
Hamas publicly rejected the disarmament plan and any foreign security force presence in Gaza, undermining the peace plan's implementation and reducing the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza. This stance contributed to the market's sharp decline in probabilities for foreign intervention by the end of August.
Israeli security cabinet maintains control over Gaza, limiting international force deployment
Despite approvals, Israel maintained that its forces would continue to hold key positions in Gaza and that no further withdrawal would occur until Hamas was fully disarmed, limiting the scope and timing of international force deployment and dampening market expectations.
Ugandan parliament approves sending troops to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 dips to 28%1%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, signaling expanding international commitment. Despite this, no troops had yet entered Gaza, and political and operational challenges persisted, keeping market probabilities low.
EU Extends Mandate of Border Assistance Mission at Rafah Crossing
December 31 dips to 29%1%
The European Union extended its border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt until mid-2027, supporting limited humanitarian access but not constituting foreign military intervention inside Gaza. This maintained the status quo and did not increase market expectations for foreign troop deployment.
Turkish Foreign Minister warns of radical steps if Israel stalls Gaza transition
December 31 drops to 28%6%
Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt threatened to take radical measures if the US fails to compel Israeli compliance with the Gaza transition agreement, signaling regional pressure but no foreign troops entering Gaza yet.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, complicating peace plan implementation
December 31 drops to 28%6%
Israeli military operations continued in Gaza, including strikes killing Palestinians, which undermined ceasefire stability and delayed progress on the peace plan and international force deployment. This ongoing conflict contributed to market pessimism about foreign intervention occurring soon.
Palestinians Continue to Live in Tent Camps Amid Gaza Devastation
December 31 dips to 29%1%
Reports highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza with civilians living in tents and awaiting reconstruction, underscoring the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground. This humanitarian context contributed to market skepticism about imminent foreign military intervention.
EU extends mandate of border assistance mission at Rafah crossing
September 30 dips to 11%3%
The European Union extended its border assistance mission at the Rafah crossing, facilitating limited movement but not constituting foreign military intervention inside Gaza, reinforcing the status quo and limiting intervention expectations.
Morocco formalizes participation in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 29%1%
Morocco signed the Participating Country Agreement to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a diplomatic milestone and raising hopes for foreign intervention. However, actual troop deployment remained stalled, limiting market impact.
Continued Israeli strikes and Hamas refusal to disarm stall Gaza peace plan implementation
September 30 drops to 9%5%
Israeli strikes continued in Gaza despite ceasefire agreements, and Hamas refused to fully disarm, stalling the implementation of the US-backed peace plan and the deployment of the international stabilization force. This ongoing conflict and lack of progress led to a sharp drop in market prices reflecting doubts about foreign intervention occurring by the deadline.
Moroccan officers conduct field visit to Gaza in preparation for international stabilization force deployment
August 31 dips to 3%4%
Moroccan officers, part of the planned international stabilization force, conducted a field visit to Gaza as part of preparations for deployment. Despite this, Israeli government had not granted final approval for deployment, and Hamas had not disarmed, contributing to market skepticism and price decline.
Palestinians and international observers report ongoing violence and instability in Gaza
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Reports from Gaza highlighted continued violence, humanitarian challenges, and instability despite ceasefire and peace efforts, dampening market expectations for timely foreign intervention on the ground.
Uganda parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international force
September 30 dips to 9%4%
Uganda's parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza for the ISF, indicating expanding international participation. However, actual deployment remained pending Israeli approval, limiting immediate impact on market prices.
Israeli military conducts first Gaza air strike in over a week
The Israeli Defense Forces conducted a targeted air strike killing a Hamas commander, highlighting ongoing hostilities and the fragile nature of the ceasefire, with no foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market doubts about foreign intervention.
Criticism mounts over Israel's reluctance to fully withdraw from Gaza delaying international force
December 31 dips to 29%2%
Public and media criticism highlighted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's reluctance to fully withdraw from Gaza, which is seen as a major obstacle to the deployment of the international stabilization force, dampening market confidence further.
Israel builds earthen barrier inside Gaza, entrenching division
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Satellite imagery revealed Israel constructing a large earthen barrier inside Gaza, further entrenching territorial division and signaling continued Israeli control rather than withdrawal. This development diminished expectations for foreign operational deployment inside Gaza, contributing to market declines.
Criticism mounts over Netanyahu’s reluctance to allow international forces into Gaza
August 31 dips to 3%3%
Public and media criticism highlighted Netanyahu’s resistance to international intervention without full Hamas disarmament, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign troops entering Gaza by the deadline.
First members of International Stabilization Force enter Gaza to prepare for reconstruction
Footage revealed that the first members of the ISF entered Gaza to prepare for reconstruction work in areas under Israeli military control beyond the 'yellow line,' but no operational peacekeeping deployment occurred, maintaining market skepticism.
Israeli military conducts targeted air strike killing Hamas commander amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 dips to 28%3%
The Israeli Defense Forces carried out a precise air strike killing a Hamas commander involved in planning attacks against Israeli troops in Gaza. This military action underscored ongoing hostilities and the fragile nature of the ceasefire, complicating prospects for foreign peacekeeping deployment and contributing to market pessimism about foreign intervention.
Pre-deployment site survey by Burundi and Uganda military officers near Gaza border
December 31 dips to 28%2%
Israeli officials reported a pre-deployment site survey by senior military officers from Burundi and Uganda near Gaza, indicating ongoing preparations for the ISF deployment despite no troops yet entering Gaza territory.
Morocco signs historic deal to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the International Stabilization Force by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a diplomatic milestone and raising expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza, though no troops had yet entered Gaza.
US President Trump demands reparations from Iran for Gaza and Lebanon damage
December 31 drops to 26%8%
Trump announced demands for reparations from Iran related to damage in Gaza and Lebanon, highlighting US involvement in regional diplomacy but no indication of US or other foreign forces entering Gaza for operational roles.
Israeli TV reports preparations for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Reports from Israeli media indicated that preparations for the deployment of the multinational ISF in Gaza had begun, signaling potential imminent foreign intervention and affecting market expectations.
Preparations begin for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for deployment of the international stabilization force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating progress toward physical foreign intervention. However, no confirmed entry of foreign troops was reported by this date, tempering market optimism.
Preparations begin for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
Israeli TV reported that preparations for deploying the multinational stabilization force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating operational progress though no confirmed troop entry yet, causing minor market fluctuations.
Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan, Netanyahu demands Hamas disarmament first
December 31 drops to 26%8%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rejected the US-backed 15-point peace plan for Gaza, insisting Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms, casting doubt on the deployment of foreign stabilization forces and reducing market confidence.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan
September 30 plunges to 7%15%
Netanyahu publicly rejected the peace plan, stating Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms, casting doubt on the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment within the timeframe.
Israel considers partial Gaza withdrawal with multinational force replacement
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Israeli security officials discussed plans for a partial military withdrawal from Gaza, with the multinational ISF set to replace troops in some areas under the ceasefire plan. This indicated potential future foreign operational presence on the ground, affecting market expectations.
Netanyahu rejects US-backed Gaza disarmament and withdrawal plan
September 30 drops to 13%14%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly opposed the Board of Peace’s 15-point plan for Gaza, including disarmament and withdrawal, casting doubt on the timing and scope of foreign force deployment and causing market declines.
Israeli TV reports preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza have begun
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Israeli media reported that actual preparations for deployment of the ISF in parts of the Gaza Strip have started, signaling progress toward operational foreign intervention, though no troops had yet entered Gaza.
Preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza begin
December 31 jumps to 59%7%
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, indicating operational readiness though no confirmed entry of foreign troops into Gaza territory yet.
Preparations for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that preparations for the ISF deployment in Gaza had started, indicating progress toward actual foreign intervention but with no confirmed troop entry yet, maintaining low market confidence.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Netanyahu publicly rejected the 15-point peace plan proposed by Trump's Board of Peace, emphasizing that Israeli forces would not withdraw until Hamas fully disarms. This stance cast doubt on the timeline and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan, demanding full Hamas disarmament first
September 30 drops to 7%9%
Israel's rejection of the peace plan and insistence on complete Hamas disarmament before troop withdrawal undermined prospects for foreign operational deployment, contributing to a sharp market decline in intervention probability.
Reports of delays and scaling back in deployment of international peacekeeping force to Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%25%
Despite troop commitments, the ISF faced significant delays and scaling back in deploying the promised international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza, dampening market optimism.
Hamas warns US over foreign troop deployment, Israel warns of conflict internationalization
Hamas expressed concerns about foreign troops from hostile states entering Gaza, while Israel warned such deployments could internationalize the conflict, increasing tensions and uncertainty over foreign intervention.
Ugandan parliament confirms troop deployment to Gaza for Trump’s ceasefire plan
August 31 rises to 7%1%
Following parliamentary approval, Uganda confirmed its commitment to send soldiers to Gaza under the ISF, reinforcing multinational participation but with deployment still pending Israeli withdrawal and Hamas disarmament.
Ugandan Parliament approves troop deployment to Gaza peacekeeping mission
Uganda's Parliament authorized troop deployments to Gaza as part of the US-backed International Stabilization Force, signaling some progress in assembling the multinational force but with details on size and timing still unclear.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force, marking a concrete step toward assembling foreign personnel for operational roles in Gaza.
Eight Arab and Muslim countries denounce Israeli attacks on Gaza hospitals amid ceasefire
December 31 plunges to 34%21%
Foreign ministers condemned Israeli strikes on Gaza medical facilities, highlighting ongoing violence and undermining confidence in peace plan implementation and foreign force deployment, leading to market price declines.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza under the international stabilization force proposed by Trump's Board of Peace, marking a new country joining the mission and indicating some progress in assembling the multinational force despite ongoing challenges.
Ugandan parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international force
Uganda's parliamentary approval to deploy troops to Gaza as part of the ISF marked a concrete commitment from a foreign country, supporting the likelihood of foreign personnel entering Gaza operationally.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
August 31 dips to 6%2%
Uganda's parliament authorized sending troops to Gaza as part of the ISF, marking a concrete step toward multinational deployment and affecting market prices downward due to ongoing uncertainties about the mission's timing and scope.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 30%2%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force proposed by the US Board of Peace, indicating expanding international commitments though actual deployment remained pending.
Israel Maintains Control Over Gaza and Conditions Deployment on Hamas Disarmament
Israeli officials reiterated that the IDF will continue to hold the Yellow Line and will not withdraw further until Hamas is fully disarmed and Gaza is demilitarized, casting uncertainty on the timing of foreign force deployment and affecting market confidence.
Uganda’s parliament approves sending troops to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
Uganda became the first African state to publicly approve sending troops to Gaza as part of the US-brokered International Stabilization Force, marking progress in assembling the multinational force despite ongoing delays and political challenges.
Ugandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
September 30 drops to 7%10%
Uganda's parliament authorized sending troops to Gaza as part of the multinational ISF, marking a concrete step toward multinational deployment and affecting market prices due to ongoing uncertainties about actual deployment.
Uganda formally approves sending troops to Gaza international force
Uganda's parliament formally approved the deployment of troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, reinforcing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission despite delays in actual deployment.
Ugandan Parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza International Stabilization Force
Uganda's Parliament officially authorized deployment of troops to the international peacekeeping force in Gaza, marking a significant foreign policy shift and expanding international commitments to the ISF.
Hamas rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%19%
Hamas publicly rejected both disarmament and the presence of external security forces, stalling the implementation of the ceasefire roadmap and reducing market expectations for foreign intervention within Gaza territory.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force proposed by Trump's Board of Peace, signaling concrete steps toward actual foreign military presence in Gaza. This development briefly supported market optimism about foreign intervention.
Uganda approves sending troops to Gaza for international stabilization force
September 30 dips to 11%1%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the International Stabilization Force proposed by the Board of Peace, signaling growing international commitment but no immediate deployment inside Gaza yet.
Egypt presses Israel to reopen Rafah crossing for goods into Gaza
Egypt urged Israel to reopen the Rafah border crossing to allow humanitarian aid and goods into Gaza, supporting stabilization efforts alongside foreign intervention plans.
Ugandan Parliament Approves Deployment of Troops to Gaza for International Stabilization Force
August 31 dips to 4%2%
Uganda's parliament approved sending troops to join the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a significant commitment from an African nation to the multinational peacekeeping effort, influencing market perceptions of foreign intervention likelihood.
Israeli military chief states IDF will continue proactive operations in Gaza despite peace plan
The Israeli military chief declared ongoing proactive IDF operations in Gaza, signaling continued Israeli military presence and complicating prospects for full foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal.
US administration notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 rises to 35%1%
The US administration informed Congress it would provide over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operational costs, signaling commitment to the peacekeeping plan despite delays in deployment, which affected market expectations.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu states no withdrawal until Hamas fully disarmed
September 30 plunges to 22%31%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas was genuinely disarmed, signaling a hardline stance that delayed foreign peacekeeping deployment and contributed to market price declines.
Jordan calls emergency meeting over Israeli threats to al-Aqsa mosque amid Gaza conflict
September 30 rises to 24%4%
Jordan convened Arab and Islamic foreign ministers to discuss Israeli plans perceived as threatening religious sites, reflecting regional diplomatic tensions but no deployment of foreign forces into Gaza territory.
Netanyahu states no Israeli withdrawal from Gaza until Hamas disarmed
December 31 plunges to 33%31%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israeli troops would not withdraw from Gaza without genuine Hamas disarmament, tempering expectations for immediate foreign force deployment and causing market price declines.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza, threatening US-backed peace plan
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire and peace plan, raising doubts about the timing and feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israeli forces continue attacks in Gaza despite ceasefire, raising doubts on peace plan
September 30 drops to 6%8%
Israeli military actions, including strikes on civilian infrastructure, persisted despite ceasefire agreements, undermining confidence in the peace plan and foreign force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Israeli warplanes hit Gaza city and surrounding areas causing highest daily death toll in weeks
August 31 drops to 1%6%
Israeli airstrikes on August 3 targeted multiple locations in Gaza, causing significant casualties and destruction. Despite ongoing violence, no foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entered Gaza, reinforcing market expectations against foreign intervention.
Israel escalates deadly attacks on Gaza, defying US-backed peace plan
September 30 plunges to 8%16%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the ceasefire and peace plan, threatening the US-backed roadmap and reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
Israel escalates attacks in Gaza, defying US-backed peace plan
December 31 drops to 51%14%
Israel intensified military operations in Gaza despite the peace plan, undermining ceasefire progress and casting doubt on the feasibility of foreign stabilization force deployment within the timeframe, leading to market declines.
Israeli forces continue attacks in Gaza despite ceasefire, causing civilian casualties
December 31 drops to 28%14%
On August 3, Israeli forces reportedly killed more than two dozen Palestinians in Gaza and continued attacks on civilian infrastructure despite ongoing ceasefire agreements. This ongoing conflict and instability reduced market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
UN condemns Hamas obstruction of humanitarian aid in Gaza
December 31 dips to 34%1%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator publicly condemned Hamas for obstructing humanitarian operations in Gaza, highlighting ongoing security and political challenges and underscoring the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground.
Israel escalates attacks on Gaza, threatening US-backed peace roadmap
August 31 dips to 6%1%
Israel intensified military strikes in Gaza, undermining the fragile ceasefire and complicating implementation of the US-backed peace plan and the deployment of the International Stabilization Force.
Israel kills 19 in Gaza despite Trump’s peace plan and ceasefire roadmap
September 30 plunges to 22%31%
Israeli airstrikes continued killing civilians and damaging medical facilities despite the Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force's announced ceasefire roadmap, indicating no foreign peacekeeping or military forces had entered Gaza to enforce peace.
Israeli strikes escalate in Gaza despite US-backed peace roadmap
December 31 surges to 60%15%
Israel escalated attacks in Gaza, defying the US-backed peace plan and worsening humanitarian conditions. This escalation decreased market optimism for foreign intervention.
Market prices decline amid doubts over actual deployment of international force
December 31 drops to 52%12%
Following the initial optimism, market prices dropped sharply as no foreign troops physically entered Gaza and Israel maintained strict conditions, including no withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line without Hamas disarmament.
Al-Quds Brigades consent to disarmament plan in Gaza
The Al-Quds Brigades agreed to the disarmament plan proposed by the Board of Peace, signaling a potential political shift. However, no foreign operational forces entered Gaza, so the market remained cautious about foreign intervention.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians amid fragile ceasefire in Gaza
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Israeli airstrikes killed multiple Palestinians in Gaza despite ongoing ceasefire agreements, underscoring continued hostilities and the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, which contributed to market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Al-Quds Brigades consent to Hamas disarmament plan
September 30 jumps to 24%8%
The Al-Quds Brigades agreed to the disarmament plan, signaling progress in peace efforts and raising hopes for foreign peacekeeping deployment, reflected in a temporary price increase.
Israeli strikes kill 19 Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing military operations
August 31 plunges to 8%18%
Israeli airstrikes caused significant casualties in Gaza, demonstrating continued Israeli military presence and operations without foreign peacekeepers or security forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market expectations of no foreign intervention.
Kosovo soldiers arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 52%18%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the US-led International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet.
Israeli strikes kill 19 Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing hostilities
September 30 dips to 22%4%
On August 2, Israeli airstrikes killed 19 Palestinians in Gaza, including in Gaza City and northern Gaza Strip, demonstrating continued conflict without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Market optimism spikes on reports of deployment preparations for Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 61%19%
Reports emerged that preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza had begun, including reconnaissance visits and training, leading to a sharp increase in market prices reflecting renewed optimism about foreign intervention.
US notifies Congress of $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
December 31 drops to 50%6%
The US State Department informed Congress it will provide $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment and operations, signaling strong US commitment to the Gaza peacekeeping plan and boosting market confidence.
Israeli attacks continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, UN reports
December 31 dips to 52%4%
UN agencies reported ongoing Israeli attacks on civilian infrastructure in Gaza, including schools, undermining the fragile ceasefire and complicating stabilization efforts. This heightened concerns about security and delayed foreign force deployment, causing market declines.
Israeli airstrike hits medical supplies warehouse in Gaza amid ongoing tensions
August 31 dips to 6%1%
An Israeli airstrike targeted a pharmaceuticals warehouse at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza, highlighting ongoing hostilities despite ceasefire efforts and complicating prospects for foreign force deployment, contributing to market price declines.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Kosovo soldiers arrived in Israel to join the ISF supporting Gaza security efforts in logistics and civil affairs, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but with no deployment into Gaza yet.
Palestinians report ongoing Israeli strikes in Gaza despite ceasefire
August 31 plunges to 5%19%
Despite ceasefire agreements, Israeli forces continued air strikes and shelling in Gaza, causing civilian casualties and undermining stability. This ongoing violence reduced confidence in the peace plan and foreign force deployment, pushing market prices down.
Preparations for deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza begin
Israeli TV reported that actual preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling operational progress though no full deployment had occurred yet.
Israeli airstrikes continue in Gaza amid stalled peace plan implementation
August 31 drops to 3%13%
Israeli strikes killed Palestinians and damaged infrastructure in Gaza, undermining ceasefire efforts and raising doubts about the feasibility of foreign peacekeepers entering Gaza soon, contributing to market price declines.
Palestinians inspect site of Israeli airstrike amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
August 31 plunges to 8%22%
Israeli airstrikes continued in Gaza, underscoring ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping or military forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire and disarmament talks
December 31 drops to 52%7%
Israel conducted airstrikes in Gaza amid ongoing peace talks, casting doubt on the implementation of the peace plan and reducing market confidence in imminent foreign intervention.
Preparations begin for deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 34%3%
Israeli media reported that actual preparations for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in parts of Gaza had begun, signaling progress toward physical foreign intervention. This development temporarily increased market confidence in near-term deployment despite ongoing political and security challenges.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians amid fragile ceasefire in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%18%
Israeli military actions continued despite the ceasefire, killing civilians and undermining stability, which decreased market confidence in imminent foreign peacekeeping deployment.
Uganda approves sending troops for international force in Gaza
August 31 drops to 3%13%
Ugandan parliament approved deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the international stabilization force, signaling growing international support but no immediate deployment on the ground yet, contributing to market uncertainty.
Israeli airstrike hits medical supplies warehouse in Gaza amid ceasefire breaches
December 31 plunges to 32%22%
An Israeli airstrike targeted the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital's pharmaceuticals warehouse in Deir el-Balah, worsening humanitarian conditions and undermining the US-backed ceasefire plan, signaling continued Israeli military dominance without foreign operational intervention on the ground.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
December 31 surges to 56%28%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and for Israel to withdraw from Gaza, signaling progress in peace efforts but no foreign forces entering Gaza for operational roles, which kept market prices volatile but trending down.
Moroccan troops prepare for deployment to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
December 31 surges to 53%16%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the international stabilization force, including deployment of officers and establishment of a field military hospital in Gaza. This concrete preparation indicated progress toward foreign intervention, temporarily boosting market optimism.
Morocco Officially Joins International Stabilization Force for Gaza
September 30 jumps to 64%11%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the International Stabilization Force, committing military officers, police personnel, and a field hospital to support security and humanitarian efforts in Gaza, reinforcing the multinational mission's credibility.
Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including ISF deployment plans
December 31 surges to 59%30%
President Trump touted progress on the Gaza peace plan, including the deployment of the International Stabilization Force and disarmament of Hamas. Despite the announcement, actual deployment remained pending, and Israeli forces maintained control over key areas, sustaining market volatility.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and progress on Gaza peace effort
September 30 surges to 51%26%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key condition for foreign stabilization forces to operate. This announcement briefly boosted market confidence in foreign intervention prospects.
US President Donald Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups, contingent on Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes for foreign force deployment but with ongoing uncertainties.
Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and progress on Gaza peace effort
December 31 surges to 57%26%
US President Donald Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas, a major diplomatic milestone that raised hopes for foreign intervention and influenced market prices upward.
Trump touts progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament plan
December 31 surges to 51%25%
US President Donald Trump announced progress on the Gaza peace effort, including a plan to disarm Hamas, which raised cautious optimism but also highlighted the challenges ahead, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of foreign intervention.
US-led Board of Peace announces agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
December 31 surges to 52%19%
US President Donald Trump announced that the Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza. Despite this diplomatic development, no foreign troops entered Gaza, maintaining market uncertainty about foreign intervention.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 surges to 60%31%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force supporting Gaza security efforts, indicating progress in assembling the multinational force but no deployment into Gaza yet, boosting market confidence temporarily.
US President Trump announces Board of Peace agreement to disarm Hamas
December 31 surges to 66%35%
President Trump announced that the Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas, a key precondition for foreign force deployment. This announcement briefly increased market optimism about intervention prospects.
US President Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament agreement
December 31 surges to 66%35%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza, a key step for the peace plan and foreign force deployment. This announcement initially raised optimism and market prices.
White House unveils roadmap to demilitarize Gaza including international force deployment
December 31 surges to 63%37%
The White House announced a new framework for Gaza's demilitarization, including deployment of an international force led by the U.S. with commitments for over 5,000 troops. This announcement initially raised market expectations for foreign intervention.
US President Trump announces breakthrough on Gaza peace plan including Hamas disarmament agreement
December 31 surges to 66%36%
President Trump announced that Hamas had agreed to lay down arms in phases as Israel withdraws, raising hopes for foreign stabilization force deployment and causing a temporary surge in market optimism.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and roadmap for Gaza peace plan implementation
December 31 surges to 53%23%
President Trump and the Board of Peace announced a historic breakthrough on July 30, 2026, including a roadmap for full implementation of the ceasefire plan, with disarmament of Hamas and Israeli withdrawal as key components. This raised hopes for foreign stabilization force deployment but also highlighted ongoing challenges, influencing market prices.
Trump touts progress on Gaza peace effort as war with Iran drags on
December 31 surges to 65%41%
President Trump announced progress on the Gaza peace plan including the deployment of an International Stabilization Force, but the plan remained frozen with Hamas armed and Israel controlling over half of Gaza. This announcement briefly raised hopes but did not translate into immediate foreign troop deployment.
Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including Hamas disarmament agreement
December 31 jumps to 56%13%
US President Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key step for the peace plan and potential foreign force deployment. This announcement briefly boosted market optimism about intervention prospects.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and implement peace roadmap
August 31 jumps to 52%10%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza, a key condition for the deployment of the International Stabilization Force. This announcement initially raised hopes for progress but was met with skepticism due to ongoing Israeli control and Hamas resistance.
Morocco conducts field visit to Gaza for peacekeeping mission preparations
December 31 rises to 28%2%
Moroccan officers conducted a field visit to Gaza as part of preparations for their participation in the International Stabilization Force, indicating active steps toward deployment despite ongoing political and security challenges.
US President Trump announces progress on Gaza peace effort including disarmament plan
December 31 jumps to 37%8%
Trump's announcement of progress on the Gaza peace plan, including disarmament of Hamas and international stabilization efforts, created cautious optimism about foreign intervention, temporarily boosting market prices.
Morocco completes troop commitment formalities for Gaza stabilization mission
Morocco finalized its troop commitment to the ISF with the signing of the Participating Country Agreement on July 16 and continued preparations for deployment, including training and operational planning, signaling progress toward actual foreign troop presence in Gaza.
Egypt pushes to accelerate deployment of Gaza stabilization force
December 31 surges to 54%28%
Egypt, working with the US and regional partners, began constructing military facilities near the Gaza border to support the ISF deployment and increased humanitarian aid quietly. This indicated progress toward operationalizing the force, boosting market confidence temporarily.
US President Trump announces Board of Peace agreement to disarm Hamas
December 31 surges to 53%23%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace had reached an agreement to disarm Hamas and other militant organizations in Gaza, a key condition for foreign force deployment and Israeli withdrawal, raising hopes but also uncertainty about implementation.
Israeli airstrikes kill Hamas commander amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%9%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in Gaza, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event indicated ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
US announces $206 million funding for Gaza peacekeeping force
The US administration informed Congress it would provide over $206 million for the International Stabilization Force's equipment, infrastructure, vehicles, and operational costs, signaling commitment to the peacekeeping plan despite stalled deployment and political challenges.
White House unveils roadmap to demilitarize Gaza including international force deployment
September 30 surges to 64%44%
The US announced a detailed framework for Gaza's demilitarization and international force deployment, with commitments for over 5,000 troops, raising market expectations for foreign intervention.
President Trump Announces Historic Agreement for Hamas Disarmament and Israeli Withdrawal
December 31 jumps to 56%14%
President Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas and phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, with the International Stabilization Force to work alongside a new Palestinian police force. This announcement significantly impacted market expectations for foreign intervention.
US President Trump announces agreement to disarm Hamas and militant groups in Gaza
September 30 surges to 37%16%
Trump announced that his Board of Peace reached an agreement for Hamas and other groups to disarm, a key step for foreign force deployment, briefly boosting market optimism about international intervention in Gaza.
US-brokered deal allows limited evacuation via Rafah border crossing
December 31 rises to 34%1%
The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt was opened under agreed conditions to allow limited evacuation of foreign nationals, but no foreign military or police forces entered Gaza for operational roles, keeping foreign intervention prospects low.
Lebanese couple returns to shattered home under US-brokered deal with Israel
December 31 drops to 27%9%
On July 29, reports highlighted civilians returning to devastated homes under a US-brokered agreement, reflecting ongoing political efforts but no foreign military deployment in Gaza. This contributed to market uncertainty and price declines for foreign intervention.
Lebanese couple returns to shattered home under US-brokered deal with Israel
September 30 plunges to 21%32%
The return of civilians under a US-brokered ceasefire deal indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts and stabilization without foreign military deployment in Gaza, reinforcing market expectations against foreign intervention.
Israeli security cabinet approves legal framework for ISF with conditions
December 31 rises to 54%1%
The cabinet approved legal measures for ISF entry, requiring specific approval from Netanyahu and ministers, with Israel maintaining control over large parts of Gaza until Hamas disarms.
Uganda gives preliminary approval to deploy troops to Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Uganda agreed in principle to contribute military personnel to the international peacekeeping force in Gaza, expanding international commitments but with deployment timing still uncertain, supporting cautious market optimism.
Israel’s Security Cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force headquarters near Rafah
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
The Israeli cabinet authorized establishment of the ISF headquarters near Rafah and preparations for deployment, marking a key step in the multinational force's planned entry into Gaza under the US peace plan.
Egyptian Red Crescent delivers 243rd aid convoy to Gaza with over 2,673 tons of supplies
The Egyptian Red Crescent sent a large humanitarian convoy to Gaza, reflecting ongoing aid efforts amid the conflict but not constituting foreign military intervention, thus having limited direct impact on market prices for foreign operational deployment.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 35%7%
Egypt called on the US to expedite deployment of the international stabilization force in Gaza and facilitate humanitarian aid, signaling regional support and pressure for foreign intervention despite ongoing delays.
Israel transfers 430 Gaza Flotilla activists after Mediterranean interception
December 31 dips to 33%1%
Israeli forces intercepted and detained 430 activists from a Gaza-bound aid convoy at sea, transferring them to Israel. This event highlighted Israel's strict control over Gaza's access points and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza territory.
Moroccan Officers Tour Gaza Ahead of Multinational Force Deployment
August 31 surges to 26%20%
Moroccan military officers conducted a field visit to Gaza in preparation for their participation in the International Stabilization Force, signaling operational progress and increasing market confidence in foreign intervention.
Uganda parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza peacekeeping mission
December 31 rises to 26%1%
Uganda's parliament gave preliminary approval to send troops to the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, marking a concrete commitment from a contributing country and supporting the peace plan's implementation.
Israeli cabinet gives initial approval for limited ISF deployment with 200 troops
September 30 plunges to 21%32%
The Israeli security cabinet voted to approve limited entry of the ISF under the Board of Peace plan, including 200 troops from friendly countries, but deployment required further approvals. This reinforced the market's temporary optimism about foreign intervention.
Israeli cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%4%
Israel’s Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the ISF to Gaza as part of the US President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan, authorizing establishment of ISF headquarters near Rafah and preparations for deployment. This formal approval was a major milestone but actual deployment remained pending.
Israel grants permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in Gaza areas outside Israeli control
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Israel granted permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in Gaza areas beyond Israeli control, advancing the US-backed peace plan and increasing market confidence in foreign intervention prospects.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves multinational Board of Peace force deployment in Gaza
December 31 rises to 30%3%
The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force in Gaza, authorizing the establishment of the ISF headquarters near Rafah and paving the way for preparations to deploy the mission. This was a significant political endorsement but did not yet result in physical troop deployment.
Experts say Israel’s approval of limited Gaza force is a calculated political maneuver
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Analysts interpreted Israel's approval of a constrained pilot project for foreign forces in Gaza as a political move to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza, rather than a genuine transition to peace. This skepticism contributed to market price declines.
Israel approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Following cabinet approval, Israel authorized the ISF deployment near Rafah, coordinating with the IDF and maintaining control over much of Gaza, signaling progress but with operational constraints that tempered market optimism.
Israel confirms framework for international stabilization force deployment in Gaza
Following cabinet approval, Israeli officials confirmed the framework for ISF deployment, emphasizing coordination with the IDF and restrictions on operating areas, which tempered expectations for rapid or large-scale foreign intervention.
Israel’s approval of limited Gaza force a calculated manoeuvre, experts say
December 31 drops to 27%6%
Experts analyzed Israel's approval of a constrained pilot project for foreign security forces in Gaza as a political move to deflect US pressure and fragment Gaza, casting doubt on the scale and impact of foreign intervention.
Israel confirms limited entry of International Stabilization Force with 200 troops
December 31 plunges to 16%37%
Israeli security cabinet voted to approve limited entry of the ISF, including 200 troops from friendly countries such as Morocco and Uganda, into Gaza's humanitarian zones pending further approvals.
Uganda receives formal request to contribute troops to Gaza stabilization force
US President Donald Trump formally requested Uganda to contribute troops to the multinational International Stabilization Force in Gaza, indicating international support and troop commitments for the mission.
Egyptian aid convoy enters Gaza via Rafah crossing amid ongoing humanitarian efforts
On July 26, Egypt sent its 242nd humanitarian aid convoy into Gaza through the Rafah crossing, supporting relief efforts as part of the broader peace plan. This highlighted ongoing international involvement in Gaza's stabilization, though not constituting foreign military intervention on the ground.
Israel's cabinet approves entry of multinational stabilization force into Gaza
December 31 plunges to 34%16%
Israel's Diplomatic-Security Cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza, a key step toward operational foreign intervention, though opposition remained within the cabinet.
Israel approves future deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 dips to 27%4%
The Israeli cabinet's approval of the ISF's future deployment marked a significant milestone in the peace plan, with expectations of initial troop deployment and coordination with Israeli forces.
Israeli official confirms cabinet approval of legal framework for Gaza force with 200 troops
December 31 surges to 66%16%
An Israeli official confirmed cabinet approval of the legal framework for the International Stabilization Force, including about 200 troops from friendly countries, marking a key milestone toward actual foreign military presence in Gaza.
Israeli cabinet approves deployment of International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 51%21%
Israel's security cabinet approved the deployment of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) to Gaza as part of the US President Donald Trump's peace plan. The approval allowed peacekeeping troops to operate in areas outside Israeli control, a critical step towards foreign intervention, though actual deployment remained pending.
Israel approves legal framework for Gaza force with 200 troops from friendly countries
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Israel's cabinet gave initial approval for the International Stabilization Force to enter Gaza with about 200 troops from countries friendly to Israel, but deployment required further approval from top ministers. This cautious step tempered market expectations.
Israel's security cabinet approves limited deployment of up to 200 foreign troops into Gaza
Israel's security cabinet approved the limited deployment of up to 200 foreign troops into Gaza, marking a cautious but concrete step toward foreign operational presence, though limited in scope and not yet involving boots on the ground inside Gaza.
Israeli cabinet approves entry of multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 33%6%
Israel's security cabinet approved a limited pilot project allowing foreign security forces into a narrow area of Gaza, seen as a political maneuver to deflect US pressure rather than a full operational deployment. This raised market hopes briefly but skepticism remained due to the constrained nature of the approval.
Israel's Diplomatic-Security Cabinet approves entry of multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza
December 31 surges to 59%28%
Israel's cabinet approved the deployment of the multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza despite opposition from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. This official approval increased the likelihood of foreign personnel entering Gaza for operational roles, boosting market prices.
Board of Peace force prepares for Gaza deployment amid Israeli approval
December 31 jumps to 35%8%
The Board of Peace and International Stabilization Force continued preparations for deployment in Gaza, including logistics and establishing a semi-military camp, signaling operational readiness following Israeli cabinet approval.
Uganda formally approves deployment of troops to Gaza for peace mission
December 31 rises to 35%4%
Uganda's parliament authorized deployment of a UPDF contingent to Gaza as part of the multinational ISF, marking concrete troop commitments from foreign states.
Israel’s security cabinet authorizes multinational stabilization force deployment to Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israel approved a legal framework for deploying a multinational stabilization force under the US-backed Board of Peace and UN Resolution 2803, with Morocco and other countries pledging personnel to monitor ceasefire and support governance. This raised market expectations for foreign intervention but did not confirm physical entry.
Israel to allow multinational security forces into Gaza as part of US peace plan
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel would permit multinational security forces, including 200 personnel from countries like Uganda and Morocco, to enter Gaza in areas not under Israeli control, pending individual approvals. This reinforced the market's positive reaction to the prospect of foreign intervention.
Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Letting International Force Enter Gaza Areas Beyond Israeli Control
December 31 surges to 52%18%
Israel's security cabinet approved allowing a proposed international force for Gaza to enter parts of the enclave not under Israeli control, marking a significant policy step toward foreign intervention but without immediate deployment.
Israel approves entry of international stabilization force into Gaza and initial reconstruction project
December 31 rises to 35%3%
Israel’s Security Cabinet approved in principle the deployment of an international stabilization force in parts of Gaza, clearing the way for initial reconstruction and humanitarian projects. The ISF is expected to operate in coordination with the IDF in areas outside Hamas control, marking a significant development for foreign intervention prospects.
Board of Peace envoy welcomes Israel’s approval for peacekeeping troops in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%3%
Nickolay Mladenov, envoy for the Board of Peace, welcomed Israel’s decision to allow peacekeeping troops from countries including Morocco and Indonesia to operate in Gaza areas outside Israeli control, supporting demilitarization and transition to Palestinian administration. This boosted market optimism for foreign intervention.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves ISF entry beyond Israeli-controlled zones in Gaza
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The Israeli Security Cabinet authorized the ISF to enter Gaza areas beyond Israeli control, signaling progress in the peace plan but maintaining Israeli military control over key zones, which tempered market enthusiasm.
Israeli security cabinet approves deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 surges to 47%27%
The Israeli cabinet approved the deployment of about 200 troops from friendly countries as part of the International Stabilization Force under the Board of Peace plan, marking a significant step toward foreign intervention in Gaza.
Israel's cabinet approves limited entry of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 drops to 41%9%
The Israeli security cabinet voted to approve the limited entry of the International Stabilization Force, including about 200 troops from friendly countries, to operate in a pilot humanitarian zone in Gaza. This official approval raised market optimism about foreign intervention but with constraints on deployment scope.
Israeli cabinet approves limited entry of multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza
December 31 dips to 28%2%
The Israeli Diplomatic-Security Cabinet approved the entry of a multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza, including about 200 troops from friendly countries, marking a formal political step toward foreign intervention. However, opposition within the cabinet and lack of a deployment timeline tempered expectations. This approval was seen as a constrained pilot project rather than full operational deployment, influencing the market's moderate decline in intervention probability.
Israel grants limited approval for peacekeeping troops outside Israeli control in Gaza
December 31 dips to 31%3%
Israel's security cabinet approved limited entry of the International Stabilization Force to operate in areas outside Israeli control, a key step in the US-backed peace plan. However, the force was restricted and Israel maintained control over significant parts of Gaza, tempering expectations of full foreign intervention.
Board of Peace praises Israel’s approval for International Stabilization Force deployment
December 31 jumps to 35%5%
The Board of Peace welcomed Israel’s cabinet approval for ISF deployment, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing Gaza and supporting demilitarization, which positively influenced market sentiment.
Israeli government cabinet approves entry of International Stabilization Force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 35%7%
Israel's cabinet approved the entry of forces from the ISF into Gaza, envisioning an initial deployment of up to 200 troops with Israeli approval. This was a significant step toward actual foreign intervention under the US-backed peace plan, causing a notable market price increase.
Morocco signs agreement to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, signaling international commitment to the peacekeeping mission and raising expectations for deployment.
Israel approves limited entry of international peacekeeping force into Gaza
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework allowing a limited deployment of up to 200 foreign troops from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco into Gaza areas not under Israeli control. This cautious approval raised market expectations slightly but did not indicate a full-scale foreign intervention.
Israeli cabinet approves legal framework for international force entry into Gaza
December 31 plunges to 30%20%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework allowing the International Stabilization Force to enter Gaza, including an initial deployment of up to 200 troops from friendly countries, pending further approvals. This was a critical step but did not yet result in actual deployment, causing mixed market reactions.
Israel to allow multinational security force to enter Gaza under US peace plan
December 31 jumps to 33%7%
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel would allow a multinational security force, including 200 members from friendly countries such as Uganda and Morocco, to deploy in Gaza areas not under Israeli control, pending individual Israeli approvals. This was a key step in operationalizing the international stabilization force but did not yet involve large-scale troop deployment.
Israeli security cabinet approves limited entry of international stabilization force into Gaza
December 31 rises to 33%3%
Israel's security cabinet approved the legal framework for a limited deployment of about 200 foreign troops from friendly countries into Gaza under the US-backed peace plan, raising market hopes for foreign intervention despite operational constraints.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilization force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Egypt called on the US to expedite the deployment of the international stabilization force in Gaza and facilitate humanitarian aid, signaling regional support and pressure for foreign intervention.
Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya killed in Israeli airstrike in Deir al-Balah
September 30 plunges to 21%32%
On July 26, Israeli forces killed senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya in an airstrike, continuing military operations within Gaza. This underscored ongoing conflict without foreign intervention, contributing to market declines in intervention probability.
Israel grants permission for peacekeeping troops to operate in Gaza outside Israeli control
December 31 jumps to 34%8%
Israel's security cabinet approved the entry of a limited multinational peacekeeping force into Gaza areas not under Israeli control, marking a cautious step toward foreign operational presence but with strict Israeli oversight and limited scope.
Israeli Security Cabinet approves entry of Trump's Board of Peace and multinational peacekeeping force into Gaza
December 31 surges to 52%19%
Israel's security cabinet approved the entry of the Board of Peace and a small multinational peacekeeping force into Gaza as part of Trump's 20-point plan, allowing limited deployment near Rafah with Israeli control over the operation.
Israeli security cabinet approves legal framework for limited entry of international stabilization force into Gaza
Israel's security cabinet approved a legal framework allowing limited entry of the International Stabilization Force (ISF) into Gaza, including 200 troops from friendly countries, but deployment was contingent on further approvals and Israeli withdrawal. This raised hopes but did not confirm actual foreign intervention on the ground.
Egypt pushes to accelerate deployment of Gaza stabilization force
December 31 rises to 31%1%
Egypt, working with the US and regional partners, pushed to accelerate the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza to prevent ceasefire collapse and support postwar governance. Egypt also began constructing military facilities near its border to support the potential deployment, indicating regional backing but no immediate troop entry.
Egypt urges US to accelerate deployment of international stabilisation force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Egypt called on the US to speed up the deployment of the International Stabilization Force in Gaza and facilitate humanitarian aid, signaling regional pressure to advance the peace plan and foreign intervention efforts.
Around 30 Moroccan military officers enter Gaza for force deployment preparations
December 31 rises to 35%3%
Approximately 30 Moroccan military officers entered Gaza on a field tour as part of preparations for the multinational force expected to operate in Gaza, signaling progress in operational planning though no full deployment yet.
Moroccan military officers enter Gaza to prepare for multinational force deployment
December 31 jumps to 32%6%
Around 30 Moroccan military officers entered Gaza on July 23 as part of preparations for the proposed multinational International Stabilization Force expected to operate in Gaza. This was a significant step toward deployment but did not constitute an operational foreign force presence, maintaining market skepticism.
Moroccan and Kosovo contingents visit Gaza in preparation for deployment
Moroccan and Kosovo contingents of the International Stabilization Force conducted a visit to Gaza, signaling operational preparations but no permanent deployment yet. This indicated progress but maintained uncertainty about actual foreign boots on the ground.
Palestinian sources allege Israel uses napalm-like weapons in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Reports emerged that Israel resumed using weapons causing severe burns in Gaza, including alleged napalm-type missiles, raising tensions but not involving foreign forces entering Gaza. This maintained the status quo of Israeli military operations without foreign intervention, contributing to market uncertainty.
Netanyahu opposes Turkish and Qatari troops in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%7%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly rejected deployment of Turkish and Qatari troops in Gaza, reflecting political resistance to certain foreign forces entering Gaza and complicating international force composition, dampening market optimism.
Morocco signs historic deal to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 35%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a significant diplomatic milestone and raising market expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza.
UN warns of expanding Israeli control in Gaza, no foreign operational deployment
December 31 drops to 30%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces expanding control in Gaza with no indication of foreign police or military personnel from other states or international institutions entering Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced the market's view that qualifying foreign intervention had not occurred.
Hamas agrees to facilitate peacekeeping force and administrative transition in Gaza
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Hamas representatives met with Egyptian officials and expressed willingness to facilitate the work of peacekeeping forces and transfer administrative control to a technocratic council, but insisted on non-interference, leaving operational deployment uncertain.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Morocco agreed to participate in the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling international intent for foreign operational roles. However, no reports confirmed physical deployment of foreign personnel on Gaza territory by this date, keeping market prices low.
Morocco's participation in Gaza stabilization coincides with ongoing violence and truce talks
December 31 dips to 32%2%
Morocco's signing to join the International Stabilization Force occurred amid continued violence in Gaza and ongoing truce negotiations, highlighting the complex environment and delaying expectations for foreign troops entering Gaza territory.
Morocco signs agreement to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a diplomatic milestone and raising expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza.
Morocco formalizes Gaza security deployment agreement, advancing stabilization plans
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Morocco signed the implementation agreement to deploy military, police, and humanitarian personnel under the International Stabilization Force, moving closer to actual deployment inside Gaza. This progress was positive but did not confirm immediate boots on Gaza ground, keeping market sentiment cautious.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza by de facto authorities
December 31 rises to 35%4%
The UN condemned armed personnel affiliated with Gaza's de facto authorities for disrupting humanitarian aid, highlighting worsening conditions but no foreign military intervention on the ground. This maintained the market's low probability for foreign intervention.
Morocco signs agreement with Board of Peace to join Gaza international force
December 31 dips to 30%4%
Morocco's military signed a legal framework agreement with the Board of Peace to participate in the Gaza stabilization force, reflecting commitment to peace efforts. However, no deployment of troops into Gaza occurred, keeping the market's outlook cautious.
Morocco signs on to international military stabilization force in post-war Gaza
Morocco officially signed an agreement to participate in the ISF for Gaza, reinforcing multinational efforts to stabilize the region but with no immediate troop deployment inside Gaza due to pending legal and political steps.
Morocco signs Participating Country Agreement to join International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 32%2%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, reinforcing the multinational nature of the planned foreign force and raising market expectations for deployment.
UN humanitarian report highlights Gaza crisis without foreign intervention
December 31 dips to 33%1%
The UN humanitarian situation report detailed ongoing displacement, limited aid access, and infrastructure damage in Gaza but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This absence of foreign operational presence contributed to the market's downward price movement.
Israeli military launches major ground offensive in Gaza City
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Israel initiated a significant ground operation inside Gaza City, underscoring ongoing hostilities and the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground, which contributed to market skepticism about foreign intervention occurring by the deadline.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza without foreign intervention
The UN reported continued hostilities, displacement, and limited humanitarian access in Gaza with no mention of foreign military or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market downward adjustment on foreign intervention likelihood.
UN reports continued hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza
The UN reported ongoing hostilities, displacement, and limited humanitarian access in Gaza, with no mention of foreign police or military forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This sustained market doubts about foreign intervention.
Morocco signs Participating Country Agreement with International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Morocco formalized its troop commitment to the ISF, including deployment of officers and establishment of a field hospital in Gaza, advancing operational preparations for foreign intervention.
UN warns of increased risks to civilians as Israeli forces expand control in Gaza
December 31 dips to 33%1%
The UN highlighted Israeli forces' expansion in Gaza and the resulting civilian risks, but no foreign forces from other states or international institutions were reported entering Gaza for operational roles, maintaining market skepticism.
Morocco formalizes troop commitment to Gaza stabilization force
December 31 drops to 31%11%
Morocco signed an agreement to participate in the International Stabilization Force, becoming the first Arab and African nation to commit troops, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force but still short of deployment.
Morocco signs agreement to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
Morocco formalized its participation in the multinational stabilization mission for Gaza by signing a legal framework agreement, signaling commitment but with no immediate troop deployment inside Gaza, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
Report: US struggles to deploy foreign Gaza peacekeepers amid political delays
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Reports indicated that the US-led Board of Peace was struggling to deploy pledged foreign peacekeepers to Gaza due to political reluctance from Israel and delays in signing Status of Forces Agreements. This stalled deployment contributed to the market's decline in probability for foreign intervention by the deadline.
UN humanitarian snapshot confirms ongoing Gaza crisis without foreign military presence
December 31 dips to 30%4%
The UN's July 15 humanitarian snapshot reiterated the ongoing humanitarian crisis and military activity in Gaza but did not report any foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza, maintaining market sentiment against foreign intervention.
Morocco signs historic deal to deploy troops in Gaza under Abraham Accords framework
December 31 rises to 35%1%
Morocco formalized its commitment to deploy military and police personnel, including a field hospital, as part of the Gaza International Stabilization Force. While this marked a milestone, deployment was expected to be gradual, with initial training outside Gaza, sustaining market doubts about immediate foreign intervention on Gaza soil.
Morocco signs agreement to join Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 32%1%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF by signing the Participating Country Agreement, marking a significant diplomatic milestone and raising expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza. However, no troops had yet entered Gaza, limiting immediate impact on market probabilities.
Morocco signs historic deal with Israel to deploy troops in Gaza under Abraham Accords framework
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Morocco became the first Arab state to formally commit military personnel and police to the Gaza International Stabilization Force, marking a significant diplomatic and military milestone but with deployment preparations ongoing.
Morocco signs legal framework to participate in Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 34%3%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF with a legal agreement, signaling progress in assembling the multinational force, though deployment inside Gaza remains pending, reflecting cautious market sentiment.
UN Security Council authorizes International Stabilization Force in Gaza
December 31 rises to 42%1%
The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2803 endorsing the establishment of a temporary international stabilization force in Gaza, providing a legal mandate and encouraging troop contributions. This formal backing increased market confidence in the likelihood of foreign intervention.
Israeli military strikes police positions in North Gaza causing fatalities
December 31 dips to 31%2%
Israeli strikes on police positions in Gaza resulted in fatalities amid ongoing conflict, with no reports of foreign operational forces entering Gaza, maintaining the market's negative outlook on foreign intervention.
No foreign troops enter Gaza despite peacekeeping plans, legal hurdles remain
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Despite the arrival of some foreign troops in Israel, no official deployment into Gaza occurred due to incomplete legal and political approvals. This reinforced market expectations that foreign intervention on the ground in Gaza would not happen by the end of 2026.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to support the ISF, but the force remained non-operational inside Gaza, reinforcing market expectations that foreign intervention on Gaza soil had not yet occurred.
Morocco signs agreement to join international stabilization force for Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Morocco officially agreed to participate in the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling international plans for foreign operational presence. However, no actual deployment into Gaza territory occurred by mid-July, limiting immediate market impact.
UN condemns obstruction of humanitarian aid by Gaza authorities
December 31 rises to 34%2%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemned the obstruction of humanitarian operations by Gaza's de facto authorities, highlighting ongoing internal challenges but no foreign military or police deployment. This contributed to the market's decline in the probability of foreign intervention.
Uganda agrees in principle to join International Stabilisation Force in Gaza
Uganda reportedly agreed in principle to deploy personnel to the ISF in Gaza following a US request, signaling progress in assembling foreign forces but with no confirmed physical deployment into Gaza yet.
Board of Peace develops logistics hub in Israel but no Gaza base established
Reports indicated the Board of Peace was building a logistics hub in southern Israel as a staging ground for the ISF, but no construction had begun on a permanent base inside Gaza, with no timeline for troop deployment into Gaza. This continued the pattern of delays and uncertainty.
Board of Peace endorses U.S.-led Comprehensive Plan for Gaza stabilization
December 31 drops to 42%6%
The Board of Peace, supported by the EU and international partners, endorsed a 20-point plan for Gaza's stabilization and reconstruction, including an International Stabilization Force. However, no deployment of foreign personnel on the ground was reported by this date, maintaining market skepticism.
Soldiers from Kosovo prepare in Israel to join Gaza International Stabilization Force
Troops from Kosovo visited a military base in southern Israel as part of preparations to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza, signaling operational readiness but no actual deployment into Gaza yet, tempering market expectations for immediate foreign intervention.
US conducts new strikes amid US-Israel conflict involving Iran and Gaza attacks
The US launched new military strikes related to the US-Israel conflict involving Iran and ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon. Despite heightened military activity, no foreign peacekeeping or security forces entered Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Morocco signs agreement to join Gaza International Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 42%6%
Morocco formalized its participation in the ISF with an agreement signed in Rabat, yet Moroccan troops were still training in Israel and had not entered Gaza, indicating continued delays in deployment.
Kosovo troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza stabilization force
December 31 jumps to 48%6%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force but no timeline was given for entry into Gaza, reinforcing the view that foreign troops had not yet entered Gaza territory.
Israeli UAV strike targets buildings in Gaza City amid ongoing conflict
An Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle strike targeted buildings in Gaza City, continuing military operations without any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza. This reinforced market expectations of no foreign intervention.
Kosovo troops prepare in Israel for Gaza stabilization mission
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Soldiers from Kosovo visited a military base in southern Israel as part of preparations to join the International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza, signaling progress in multinational peacekeeping plans. This raised market expectations for foreign intervention in Gaza.
Kosovo soldiers arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 rises to 34%1%
Kosovo military personnel arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force, supporting logistics and civil affairs, but had not yet entered Gaza. This indicated progress in assembling the force but no immediate foreign boots on Gaza ground, maintaining market uncertainty.
US launches new strikes amid Iran war updates affecting Gaza and Lebanon
December 31 drops to 34%8%
US military actions related to the Iran conflict and Israeli attacks on Gaza and Lebanon were reported, but no official deployment of foreign peacekeeping or security forces on the ground in Gaza was confirmed, maintaining the market's downward trend on foreign intervention likelihood.
US and Israel continue military actions in region, no foreign ground deployment in Gaza
December 31 drops to 30%5%
Reports of US and Israeli military actions in the region, including Gaza and Lebanon, did not include any officially acknowledged foreign police, military, or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza territory. This absence of foreign ground intervention contributed to the market's downward price movement.
UN Deputy Special Coordinator condemns obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza
The UN condemned armed personnel obstructing humanitarian aid delivery in Gaza, emphasizing the challenging operational environment but no foreign military or police operational deployment was reported inside Gaza.
UN condemns Hamas obstruction of humanitarian aid in Gaza
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN Deputy Special Coordinator publicly condemned Hamas for obstructing humanitarian operations in Gaza, highlighting ongoing security and political challenges. This underscored the absence of foreign peacekeeping forces on the ground, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention.
US and Israel conduct strikes amid escalating regional conflict, no foreign ground troops in Gaza
US and Israeli military actions intensified in the region, but no reports confirmed foreign troops entering Gaza for operational roles. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention on the ground.
US peace plan envisions 20,000 peacekeepers but initial deployments delayed
December 31 drops to 41%9%
President Trump's peace plan for Gaza included a large international peacekeeping force, but initial deployments were delayed with troops training near the border rather than entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
UN humanitarian report highlights ongoing aid restrictions and casualties in Gaza
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported continued Israeli-imposed access restrictions and casualties in Gaza, with no mention of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This reinforced the market's view that foreign intervention had not occurred.
International peacekeeping force for Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Reports revealed that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This delay reduced expectations of imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
UN agency reports on dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN highlighted worsening humanitarian conditions and Israeli advances in Gaza but did not report any foreign operational deployments by non-Israeli or non-Palestinian forces, maintaining the market's negative outlook for foreign intervention.
Moroccan troops arrive in Israel to join planned Gaza Stabilization Force
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Moroccan soldiers arrived in Israel to join the International Stabilization Force for Gaza but were stationed in Israel near the border and had not entered Gaza. This indicated progress in assembling the force but no foreign boots on the ground in Gaza yet, impacting market sentiment negatively.
Trump's peace plan envisions 20,000 international peacekeepers for Gaza
December 31 drops to 42%8%
President Trump's plan called for a large multinational force to stabilize Gaza, but initial deployments were slow, with only 10 to 20 troops expected soon and full deployment delayed. This tempered market optimism about near-term foreign intervention.
Gaza peacekeeping force delayed as international support falters
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Reports emerged that regional instability and logistical setbacks delayed the planned international peacekeeping force deployment to Gaza, with key contributors suspending talks and troop arrivals postponed. This dampened near-term expectations for foreign personnel entering Gaza, impacting market prices downward.
Hamas announces resignation of Gaza Emergency Committee amid ceasefire conditions
December 31 dips to 48%2%
Hamas declared the resignation of its Gaza Emergency Committee, a step toward transferring authority to a technocratic body under international oversight. This political development was seen as insufficient to trigger foreign military deployment, influencing market sentiment downward.
Gaza peacekeeping force delayed amid regional instability and logistical setbacks
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
Reports indicated that the planned international peacekeeping force deployment to Gaza was significantly delayed due to regional instability and logistical challenges. Indonesia suspended talks on joining the mission, and the expected Moroccan detachment was postponed, dampening market optimism and causing price declines.
International Stabilization Force deployment delayed, starting with small Moroccan contingent
December 31 drops to 33%8%
President Trump's plan for a 20,000-strong peacekeeping force in Gaza was scaled back, with only 10 to 20 Moroccan troops initially deploying near Israel's border for training, delaying actual operations inside Gaza. This news contributed to a market price drop reflecting doubts about timely foreign intervention on Gaza soil.
International peacekeeping force deployment to Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Reports revealed that the planned International Stabilization Force faced significant delays and scaling back, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This news caused market confidence in foreign intervention to drop sharply.
International Stabilization Force deployment to Gaza delayed amid political and logistical challenges
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Reports indicated that the ISF troops, including Moroccan and Kosovar contingents, were present in Israel but had not entered Gaza due to unresolved legal and political issues, causing market uncertainty and price decline.
Trump's peace plan struggles as only 10-20 peacekeepers deployed near Gaza border
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Reports revealed that the International Stabilization Force envisioned by Trump is struggling to deploy more than a small group of 10 to 20 troops who are training near the Israeli border and have not entered Gaza, dampening market expectations for intervention.
International Gaza peacekeeping force delayed amid regional instability and logistical setbacks
December 31 drops to 41%11%
The Jewish Chronicle reported that the planned multinational peacekeeping force faced significant delays, with Indonesia suspending talks and Moroccan troops postponed. The force was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent, dampening expectations for near-term foreign intervention in Gaza.
US struggling to deploy 20 foreign Gaza peacekeepers after pledging 20,000
December 31 drops to 42%8%
The US-led Board of Peace faced significant delays and scaling back in deploying the promised international peacekeeping force to Gaza, with only a small number of troops expected months later and no entry into Gaza yet, dampening market optimism.
US struggles to secure commitments for Gaza peacekeeping force amid Iran war
December 31 drops to 42%8%
The US-led Board of Peace faced difficulties securing troop commitments for the International Stabilization Force in Gaza, with Indonesia withdrawing and Morocco's deployment delayed, indicating stalled foreign intervention on the ground in Gaza.
US-led International Stabilization Force struggles to deploy initial troops to Gaza
December 31 drops to 33%9%
Despite plans for a 20,000-strong peacekeeping force, only a small contingent of 10 to 20 Moroccan troops was expected to deploy months later, training near Gaza's border without entering the territory. Delays and political hurdles dampened market optimism about foreign intervention occurring soon.
Report: International peacekeeping force for Gaza delayed amid regional instability
December 31 plunges to 21%32%
Reports emerged that the planned 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force (ISF) for Gaza was struggling to deploy even a small initial contingent due to regional instability and political reluctance, with troops training in Israel but not entering Gaza. This news contributed to a decline in market confidence for foreign intervention by the deadline.
UN humanitarian report highlights dire Gaza conditions but no foreign operational deployments
December 31 drops to 34%8%
The UN humanitarian report described severe conditions in Gaza and Israeli-imposed access restrictions but did not report any foreign police, military, or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza for operational roles, supporting the market's downward price movement.
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in Gaza despite ceasefire
December 31 drops to 34%8%
Continued Israeli airstrikes killed civilians in Gaza, highlighting ongoing conflict without foreign ground forces entering Gaza. This reinforced market sentiment against foreign operational deployments within the analysis window.
US President Donald Trump arrives amid stalled Gaza reconstruction efforts
December 31 dips to 48%2%
On July 9, 2026, US President Donald Trump arrived in the US amid reports that the US-controlled Board of Peace's efforts to advance Gaza reconstruction and security deployments were stalled. This indicated delays in any foreign operational deployment in Gaza, influencing market price declines.
Israeli airstrikes kill nine Palestinians in Gaza including aid driver
December 31 drops to 42%6%
Israeli military actions continued in Gaza, resulting in civilian casualties including a driver delivering food aid. Despite the humanitarian crisis, no foreign military or police forces from outside Israel or Palestinian entities were reported to have entered Gaza for operational roles, maintaining market skepticism.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza
December 31 drops to 42%6%
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported continued hostilities and worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza, with no mention of foreign police or military forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This maintained market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israeli shelling kills eight Palestinians in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Israeli strikes on July 8 killed eight Palestinians in Gaza, highlighting ongoing hostilities and the fragile nature of the ceasefire. No foreign peacekeeping forces entered Gaza, reinforcing market expectations against foreign intervention by the deadline.
Hamas dissolves administrative body in Gaza Strip, transferring authority to technocratic committee
Hamas dissolved its civilian governing body in Gaza, transferring responsibilities to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a technocratic body under international oversight. This political shift was seen as a step toward governance reform but did not involve foreign military presence, maintaining status quo on foreign intervention prospects.
Israeli strikes kill eight Palestinians in Gaza amid fragile ceasefire
Israeli shelling killed eight Palestinians in Gaza, underscoring the fragile ceasefire and ongoing hostilities without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for foreign intervention.
Israeli military kills senior Hamas commander in Gaza strike
Israeli forces killed a Hamas military intelligence commander in Gaza, continuing active hostilities without any foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza.
Belgian Foreign Minister moves toward recognizing Palestinian statehood
Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot announced steps toward recognizing Palestinian statehood, signaling increased international diplomatic engagement but not involving foreign military deployment in Gaza. This diplomatic development contributed to market uncertainty but did not indicate foreign intervention on the ground.
UN reports dire humanitarian conditions persist in Gaza amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 42%6%
The UN highlighted severe humanitarian needs and disruptions in Gaza but confirmed no foreign peacekeeping or military forces had entered Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention, contributing to a price drop.
India criticized for silence on Gaza conflict amid foreign policy scrutiny
Indian opposition criticized Prime Minister Modi for silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting international diplomatic tensions but no direct foreign military intervention in Gaza, thus not affecting the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza.
Israeli attacks on Gaza kill at least 6 amid ongoing ceasefire violations
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israeli airstrikes continued to kill and wound Palestinians in Gaza despite a ceasefire, underscoring ongoing conflict without foreign ground intervention. This maintained market skepticism about foreign operational deployments in Gaza.
Hamas resigns Gaza civil administration under peace plan
December 31 rises to 42%1%
Hamas announced resignation of its civil administration under the Gaza peace plan, signaling political instability but no foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This contributed to market doubts about foreign intervention prospects.
Congress criticizes Modi's silence on Gaza amid foreign policy debate
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Indian opposition criticized Prime Minister Modi for his silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting international political tensions but no indication of foreign forces entering Gaza. This contributed to market uncertainty and a price drop.
Congress criticizes Indian government silence on Gaza conflict
Indian opposition leaders publicly condemned Prime Minister Modi's silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, highlighting international diplomatic tensions but no indication of foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This political development had limited direct impact on the market's assessment of foreign intervention likelihood.
Hamas dissolves Gaza government to transfer power to UN-backed technocratic committee
December 31 drops to 42%8%
Hamas announced it had dissolved its government in Gaza and was preparing to transfer civil authority to a UN-backed technocratic body as part of the US-brokered ceasefire deal. This move was seen as a step towards peace and reconstruction but did not include disarmament, and Israel dismissed it as cosmetic, reducing expectations of foreign operational intervention.
Hamas dissolves emergency committee, prepares for Gaza administration transfer
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Hamas announced dissolving its emergency committee to transfer administrative responsibilities to a national committee for Gaza's administration, aiming to facilitate ceasefire arrangements. This political move did not involve foreign military or security personnel entering Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention on the ground.
Indian opposition criticizes government silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 42%10%
Indian political leaders publicly criticized the government for its silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, highlighting international political tensions but no foreign military deployment in Gaza.
Hamas announces dissolution of Gaza government to transfer power to UN-backed technocratic committee
On July 6, Hamas declared it had dissolved its civil administration in Gaza to comply with the US-brokered ceasefire plan, transferring governance to a UN-supported technocratic body. This political move was seen as cosmetic by Israel and did not involve foreign military deployment, leading to market doubts about imminent foreign intervention.
Indian opposition criticizes Modi government’s silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Indian Congress leaders publicly criticized Prime Minister Modi for his silence on Israel’s actions in Gaza, reflecting international political discourse but no indication of foreign military intervention in Gaza. This political statement did not affect the likelihood of foreign forces entering Gaza.
UN reports ongoing Israeli military control and expansion in Gaza with no foreign ground forces
December 31 drops to 42%6%
UN reports detailed Israeli advances and control expansions in Gaza, including the use of incendiary munitions and buffer zone enforcement, with no mention of foreign military or peacekeeping personnel entering Gaza. This reinforced market expectations against foreign intervention.
Hamas announces resignation of Gaza civil administration under peace plan
Hamas announced the resignation of its civil administration under the Gaza peace plan, signaling political instability but no foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This contributed to market doubts about foreign intervention prospects.
Indian opposition criticizes Modi's silence on Gaza conflict
December 31 drops to 41%11%
Indian Congress leaders publicly criticized Prime Minister Modi for his silence on Israel's actions in Gaza, reflecting diplomatic tensions but no indication of foreign operational intervention in Gaza. This political statement did not affect the likelihood of foreign forces entering Gaza.
Israeli strikes kill Palestinians in Gaza amid ongoing demolitions
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israeli strikes killed Palestinians in Gaza while demolitions continued, highlighting persistent conflict and absence of foreign operational forces entering Gaza. This sustained the market's downward trend in foreign intervention probability.
Israeli strike kills Palestinian in Gaza as army continues demolitions
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israeli military actions continued in Gaza with strikes and demolitions, maintaining conflict intensity but no foreign forces from outside Israel or Palestinian entities entered Gaza for operational roles, keeping the market's outlook uncertain.
Egypt dispatches 227th humanitarian aid convoy to Gaza via Rafah crossing
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Egypt continued humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza through the Rafah crossing, emphasizing aid efforts without foreign military deployment inside Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention.
Israeli airstrike kills Palestinian in Gaza amid ongoing demolitions
December 31 drops to 41%9%
Israeli military actions continued in Gaza with airstrikes and demolitions, but no foreign military or peacekeeping forces entered Gaza. This maintained the market's view that foreign intervention was unlikely in the near term.
Egyptian humanitarian aid convoy enters Gaza via Rafah crossing
The 227th Egyptian aid convoy entered Gaza through the Rafah crossing delivering humanitarian supplies. This event confirmed ongoing aid efforts but did not involve foreign military or security personnel entering Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention under the market criteria.
Israeli army detains settler activists near Syria border amid regional tensions
December 31 drops to 41%9%
The Israeli army detained settler activists attempting to breach the Syria border, highlighting regional security tensions but no foreign operational deployment in Gaza. This event maintained market uncertainty and contributed to price volatility.
Israel initiates large-scale military operation in central Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israel launched a significant ground offensive into Gaza's urban center, intensifying conflict but not involving foreign forces entering Gaza, thus not qualifying as foreign intervention. This heightened conflict increased uncertainty about international stabilization efforts, impacting market sentiment.
Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt reopens for limited pedestrian movement
Israel reopened the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for limited pedestrian movement under strict security coordination, allowing some movement but not constituting foreign military intervention. This humanitarian development had limited impact on the market's foreign intervention outlook.
UN Security Council endorses International Stabilization Force for Gaza
The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2803 in November 2025, authorizing a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza to stabilize the region and support disarmament. This set the legal framework for the ISF, raising initial market optimism about foreign intervention.
Israeli strike kills Hamas commander amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in Gaza, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event indicated ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Hamas commander killed in Israeli strike amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
An Israeli strike killed a Hamas commander in Gaza, continuing hostilities and undermining ceasefire efforts. This event indicated ongoing conflict without foreign peacekeeping or security forces entering Gaza, contributing to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Morocco signs agreement to join International Stabilization Force for Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Morocco officially signed a legal framework to participate in the ISF, signaling a major Arab military power's commitment to the multinational peacekeeping effort. However, the deployment was planned to begin with training near Gaza's border, not immediate entry into Gaza itself, limiting immediate impact on the market.
Netanyahu confirms Israeli forces expanding control over Gaza territory
December 31 jumps to 50%5%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced increased Israeli military control over Gaza, up to 70% of the territory, indicating no foreign forces entering Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced market sentiment against foreign intervention.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms troops will remain in Gaza security zones indefinitely
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Israel's Defense Minister stated that Israeli forces would maintain their presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely, signaling no withdrawal or foreign intervention by other states, which dampened market optimism.
Israeli military continues airstrikes and demolitions in Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Israeli forces conducted drone strikes and air attacks in Gaza, killing Palestinians and causing destruction, reinforcing the ongoing conflict but without any foreign intervention on the ground. This maintained market uncertainty about foreign forces entering Gaza.
UN reports Israeli forces expand control in Gaza, displacing families
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Beit Lahia, Gaza, expanding control zones and causing civilian displacement, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention, contributing to price decline.
Israel Defense Minister announces indefinite troop presence in Gaza
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Israel's Defense Minister stated that Israeli forces would remain in Gaza indefinitely, reinforcing Israeli military control over much of the territory and signaling no imminent foreign peacekeeping deployment. This announcement contributed to market uncertainty and a slight price increase before subsequent declines.
US plans international stabilization force for Gaza in early 2026
US officials revealed plans for a UN-mandated multinational stabilization force to deploy in Gaza as part of the second phase of the Trump administration's peace plan, aiming to secure the enclave without combat missions against Hamas. This announcement raised initial market expectations for foreign intervention.
Hamas expresses cautious optimism about arrival of international forces near Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Hamas welcomed the beginning of international forces arriving near Gaza, hoping it would lead to separation from Israeli forces, but emphasized no interference in internal affairs. This tempered optimism contributed to initial market confidence in foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing hostilities and humanitarian crisis in Gaza
December 31 plunges to 31%19%
The UN detailed continued hostilities, displacement, and limited humanitarian access in Gaza with no mention of foreign military or peacekeeping forces entering Gaza, reinforcing market skepticism about foreign intervention likelihood.
UN reports Israeli military advances and humanitarian challenges in Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, setting tents ablaze and expanding control areas, while humanitarian operations faced severe restrictions. This reinforced the market's view that no foreign operational forces had entered Gaza, maintaining skepticism about foreign intervention.
UN reports ongoing Israeli military operations and humanitarian challenges in Gaza
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The UN highlighted continued Israeli military activity and displacement in Gaza, with no indication of foreign forces entering the territory, maintaining uncertainty about foreign intervention prospects.
UN warns of expanding Israeli control areas in Gaza increasing civilian risks
December 31 rises to 52%2%
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, expanding control zones and causing civilian displacement, but no foreign military or peacekeeping forces entered Gaza. This maintained the market's view that foreign intervention as defined had not occurred.
Israeli Defense Minister affirms IDF presence in Gaza security zones indefinitely
On July 1, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would remain in Gaza's security zones indefinitely, signaling continued Israeli control but no foreign intervention. This reinforced market expectations that foreign troops would not enter Gaza, contributing to price stability.
UN reports expansion of Israeli control in Gaza with increased risks to civilians
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, expanding buffer zones and causing displacement, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles, reinforcing market doubts about foreign intervention.
Moroccan planning officers join Israel Security Forces planning for Gaza stabilization
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Reports indicated that a small number of Moroccan planning officers arrived in Israel to join ISF planning efforts, marking a tentative step toward deployment, but the overall force deployment remained stalled, tempering expectations for immediate foreign intervention on Gaza ground.
US officials reveal plans for international stabilization force deployment to Gaza in early 2026
US officials announced that a multinational stabilization force could be deployed to Gaza as part of the second phase of the Trump administration's peace plan, aiming to secure the enclave and support demilitarization efforts. This announcement initially raised market optimism about foreign intervention.
UN warns of increased risks to civilians as Israeli forces expand control in Gaza
The UN reported Israeli forces advancing in Gaza, causing civilian displacement and destruction, but no foreign forces entered Gaza for operational roles. This reinforced expectations that foreign intervention was unlikely in the near term, contributing to market stability around 50%.
US struggles to deploy initial Moroccan troops for Gaza stabilization force
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The US pledged a 20,000-strong peacekeeping force for Gaza but was struggling to deploy even a small group of 10 to 20 Moroccan troops, who were training near the Israeli border rather than entering Gaza. This dampened expectations for imminent foreign intervention on the ground.
Morocco troops expected to train near Gaza border, deployment delayed
December 31 drops to 45%5%
Reports indicated Moroccan peacekeepers, initially slated for June deployment, were now expected to train near Gaza's border inside Israel before any operational deployment, signaling delays in foreign intervention on Gaza soil and contributing to market uncertainty.
Board of Peace officials announce plans for pilot humanitarian zone in southern Gaza
Officials revealed plans to establish a pilot humanitarian zone in the Rafah area of Gaza, to be secured by an International Stabilization Force, but deployment remains pending and contingent on Israeli and Palestinian cooperation, impacting market optimism.
Israeli court extends detention of Gaza-bound flotilla activists
An Israeli court extended detention of two activists from a Gaza-bound flotilla intercepted in international waters, highlighting ongoing Israeli enforcement of the naval blockade but no foreign operational deployment on Gaza soil. This reinforced market views that foreign personnel had not entered Gaza for operational roles.
UN Security Council prepares for Middle East debate amid Gaza ceasefire challenges
The UN Security Council scheduled a quarterly debate on the Middle East, highlighting ongoing issues including Hamas' refusal to disarm and the lack of a political settlement in Gaza. This underscored the absence of foreign operational deployments in Gaza, maintaining market skepticism about foreign intervention.
Israel court extends detention of 2 Gaza-bound flotilla activists
An Israeli court extended detention of two activists from a Gaza-bound flotilla intercepted in international waters, highlighting ongoing tensions but no foreign operational deployment inside Gaza. This reinforced market skepticism about foreign intervention on the ground.
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Frequently Asked Questions