Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz navigation, using the island and nearby outposts for radar, missile systems, and vessel inspections to enforce routing and fees. The February 2026 escalation, April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and July resumption of strikes have centered on competing claims to maritime authority, with Iran consolidating its position through island checkpoints and Oman-mediated talks while the US has imposed and reimposed blockades. Low shipping traffic and mutual assertions of dominance as of mid-August 2026 reflect ongoing brinkmanship, where any shift in island control would require major military developments or a comprehensive diplomatic settlement altering territorial realities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$62,834 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$62,834 Vol.
August 31
$51,097 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz navigation, using the island and nearby outposts for radar, missile systems, and vessel inspections to enforce routing and fees. The February 2026 escalation, April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and July resumption of strikes have centered on competing claims to maritime authority, with Iran consolidating its position through island checkpoints and Oman-mediated talks while the US has imposed and reimposed blockades. Low shipping traffic and mutual assertions of dominance as of mid-August 2026 reflect ongoing brinkmanship, where any shift in island control would require major military developments or a comprehensive diplomatic settlement altering territorial realities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$62,834End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz navigation, using the island and nearby outposts for radar, missile systems, and vessel inspections to enforce routing and fees. The February 2026 escalation, April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and July resumption of strikes have centered on competing claims to maritime authority, with Iran consolidating its position through island checkpoints and Oman-mediated talks while the US has imposed and reimposed blockades. Low shipping traffic and mutual assertions of dominance as of mid-August 2026 reflect ongoing brinkmanship, where any shift in island control would require major military developments or a comprehensive diplomatic settlement altering territorial realities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,834End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz navigation, using the island and nearby outposts for radar, missile systems, and vessel inspections to enforce routing and fees. The February 2026 escalation, April ceasefire, June memorandum of understanding, and July resumption of strikes have centered on competing claims to maritime authority, with Iran consolidating its position through island checkpoints and Oman-mediated talks while the US has imposed and reimposed blockades. Low shipping traffic and mutual assertions of dominance as of mid-August 2026 reflect ongoing brinkmanship, where any shift in island control would require major military developments or a comprehensive diplomatic settlement altering territorial realities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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