Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

NEW
Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

Below 5.20%

$0 Vol.

61%

Below 5.15%

$0 Vol.

61%

Below 5.10%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 5.05%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 5.00%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.95%

$0 Vol.

50%

Below 4.90%

$0 Vol.

49%

Below 4.80%

$0 Vol.

49%

Below 4.60%

$0 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield currently trades near 5.24-5.25%, supported by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, a hawkish FOMC stance under Chair Warsh that has repriced the policy rate path higher for 2026, and an elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion. Real yields have driven much of the recent backup, while inflation breakevens remain relatively stable. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and PCE releases, the September FOMC decision, and Treasury auctions, with markets now assigning meaningful odds to steady or higher policy rates through year-end rather than aggressive easing. Any sustained move lower would require clearer evidence of disinflation or geopolitical de-escalation to compress the term premium.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield currently trades near 5.24-5.25%, supported by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, a hawkish FOMC stance under Chair Warsh that has repriced the policy rate path higher for 2026, and an elevated term premium reflecting heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion. Real yields have driven much of the recent backup, while inflation breakevens remain relatively stable. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and PCE releases, the September FOMC decision, and Treasury auctions, with markets now assigning meaningful odds to steady or higher policy rates through year-end rather than aggressive easing. Any sustained move lower would require clearer evidence of disinflation or geopolitical de-escalation to compress the term premium.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.21% in September?

61%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?

64%
icon for Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September?

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.30% in September?

63%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Below 5.20%" at 61%, followed by "Below 5.15%" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" is "Below 5.20%" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Below 5.15%" at 61%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.