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icon for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?

icon for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?

10 27%

11 27%

12 18%

9 17%

Polymarket

$24,792 Vol.

10 27%

11 27%

12 18%

9 17%

Polymarket

$24,792 Vol.

icon for ≤6

≤6

$10,233 Vol.

<1%

icon for 7

7

$2,757 Vol.

1%

icon for 8

8

$1,119 Vol.

<1%

icon for 9

9

$883 Vol.

17%

icon for 10

10

$1,276 Vol.

27%

icon for 11

11

$1,751 Vol.

27%

icon for 12

12

$681 Vol.

18%

icon for 13

13

$623 Vol.

9%

icon for more than 13

more than 13

$5,470 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity aligns with the USGS long-term average of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, driven by steady strain release along subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges in the Pacific Ring of Fire. So far in the August 31–September 6 window, confirmed events include a 5.5 in Indonesia’s Flores Sea on August 31, a 5.6 off Halmahera on September 1, a 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands on September 2, and a 6.3 south of Alaska on September 3, plus several additional 5.5+ shocks through September 4–5. Trader consensus clustering on 10–11 events reflects Poisson variability in short-term counts, the absence of anomalous swarms or aftershock sequences, and remaining uncertainty over final-day activity before the September 6 close.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$24,792
End Date
Sep 7, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity aligns with the USGS long-term average of roughly 8–12 magnitude 5.5+ events per week, driven by steady strain release along subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges in the Pacific Ring of Fire. So far in the August 31–September 6 window, confirmed events include a 5.5 in Indonesia’s Flores Sea on August 31, a 5.6 off Halmahera on September 1, a 6.2 in the South Sandwich Islands on September 2, and a 6.3 south of Alaska on September 3, plus several additional 5.5+ shocks through September 4–5. Trader consensus clustering on 10–11 events reflects Poisson variability in short-term counts, the absence of anomalous swarms or aftershock sequences, and remaining uncertainty over final-day activity before the September 6 close.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$24,792
End Date
Sep 7, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10" at 27%, followed by "11" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?" has generated $24.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?" is "10" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.