Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (39.5%) to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 7–13, reflecting the USGS-derived global average of roughly 46 such events annually, or under one per week. This rate follows a Poisson-like distribution for large-magnitude events, with zero or two quakes also plausible given week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data through early September 2026 show typical background seismicity, including isolated 6.0–6.3 events in Alaska and elsewhere, without clusters or foreshock sequences that would elevate short-term odds. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate low likelihood of sustained deviation from baseline rates absent new triggering activity along major subduction zones or faults.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
1 40%
0 25%
2 22%
3 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
25%
1
40%
2
22%
3
9%
4
5%
5
2%
more than 5
1%
1 40%
0 25%
2 22%
3 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
$0 Vol.
25%
1
$0 Vol.
40%
2
$0 Vol.
22%
3
$0 Vol.
9%
4
$0 Vol.
5%
5
$99 Vol.
2%
more than 5
$58 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (39.5%) to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 7–13, reflecting the USGS-derived global average of roughly 46 such events annually, or under one per week. This rate follows a Poisson-like distribution for large-magnitude events, with zero or two quakes also plausible given week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data through early September 2026 show typical background seismicity, including isolated 6.0–6.3 events in Alaska and elsewhere, without clusters or foreshock sequences that would elevate short-term odds. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate low likelihood of sustained deviation from baseline rates absent new triggering activity along major subduction zones or faults.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$157End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (39.5%) to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 7–13, reflecting the USGS-derived global average of roughly 46 such events annually, or under one per week. This rate follows a Poisson-like distribution for large-magnitude events, with zero or two quakes also plausible given week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data through early September 2026 show typical background seismicity, including isolated 6.0–6.3 events in Alaska and elsewhere, without clusters or foreshock sequences that would elevate short-term odds. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate low likelihood of sustained deviation from baseline rates absent new triggering activity along major subduction zones or faults.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$157End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (39.5%) to exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 7–13, reflecting the USGS-derived global average of roughly 46 such events annually, or under one per week. This rate follows a Poisson-like distribution for large-magnitude events, with zero or two quakes also plausible given week-to-week variability. Recent USGS data through early September 2026 show typical background seismicity, including isolated 6.0–6.3 events in Alaska and elsewhere, without clusters or foreshock sequences that would elevate short-term odds. Model consensus and historical analogs indicate low likelihood of sustained deviation from baseline rates absent new triggering activity along major subduction zones or faults.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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