Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with roughly 15–20 magnitude 5.5+ events expected weekly on average, drawn from USGS catalogs showing 1,900 M5+ quakes annually worldwide. Trader sentiment favors lower counts near 6–8 because recent monitoring through early September 2026 reveals no clustered aftershock sequences or elevated activity in major subduction zones, producing a near-Poisson spread where weekly totals fluctuate widely due to random timing of moderate events. Key variables include ongoing strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire faults and any new USGS model runs that could revise short-term rates, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
≤6 22%
7 13%
8 13%
more than 13 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
≤6
22%
7
13%
8
13%
9
12%
10
10%
11
8%
12
7%
13
5%
more than 13
13%
≤6 22%
7 13%
8 13%
more than 13 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
≤6
$850 Vol.
22%
7
$0 Vol.
13%
8
$0 Vol.
13%
9
$0 Vol.
12%
10
$0 Vol.
10%
11
$0 Vol.
8%
12
$0 Vol.
7%
13
$0 Vol.
5%
more than 13
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with roughly 15–20 magnitude 5.5+ events expected weekly on average, drawn from USGS catalogs showing 1,900 M5+ quakes annually worldwide. Trader sentiment favors lower counts near 6–8 because recent monitoring through early September 2026 reveals no clustered aftershock sequences or elevated activity in major subduction zones, producing a near-Poisson spread where weekly totals fluctuate widely due to random timing of moderate events. Key variables include ongoing strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire faults and any new USGS model runs that could revise short-term rates, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$850End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with roughly 15–20 magnitude 5.5+ events expected weekly on average, drawn from USGS catalogs showing 1,900 M5+ quakes annually worldwide. Trader sentiment favors lower counts near 6–8 because recent monitoring through early September 2026 reveals no clustered aftershock sequences or elevated activity in major subduction zones, producing a near-Poisson spread where weekly totals fluctuate widely due to random timing of moderate events. Key variables include ongoing strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire faults and any new USGS model runs that could revise short-term rates, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$850End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with roughly 15–20 magnitude 5.5+ events expected weekly on average, drawn from USGS catalogs showing 1,900 M5+ quakes annually worldwide. Trader sentiment favors lower counts near 6–8 because recent monitoring through early September 2026 reveals no clustered aftershock sequences or elevated activity in major subduction zones, producing a near-Poisson spread where weekly totals fluctuate widely due to random timing of moderate events. Key variables include ongoing strain release along Pacific Ring of Fire faults and any new USGS model runs that could revise short-term rates, with resolution hinging on precise magnitude thresholds and global catalog completeness.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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