**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle—15 retiring outright and seven running for Senate—placing the total squarely in the market’s leading 20–23 bin (57% implied probability).** This count reflects a wave of senior departures driven by age and tenure, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, Jerry Nadler, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, and Bonnie Watson Coleman, alongside redistricting impacts in states such as Texas and Tennessee that prompted exits like Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen. Additional movement stems from members pursuing higher office, such as Angie Craig, Chris Pappas, Haley Stevens, and Jasmine Crockett seeking Senate seats. Trader consensus in the 20–23 range aligns with the current announced total and the limited window remaining for further announcements before the November 2026 general election. While primary defeats and isolated resignations continue, they have not yet pushed Democratic departures materially outside this band, and historical patterns show most retirement decisions are finalized well before late summer. The next most likely range (24–27 at 26.5%) would require several additional late announcements, which appear unlikely absent major unforeseen developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20–23 57.0%
24–27 27%
<20 6.9%
28–31 4.7%
$49,180 Vol.
$49,180 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
7%
20–23
57%
24–27
27%
28–31
5%
32–35
4%
36–39
1%
40+
3%
20–23 57.0%
24–27 27%
<20 6.9%
28–31 4.7%
$49,180 Vol.
$49,180 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
$17,937 Vol.
7%
20–23
$11,500 Vol.
57%
24–27
$9,913 Vol.
27%
28–31
$2,023 Vol.
5%
32–35
$4,640 Vol.
4%
36–39
$1,409 Vol.
1%
40+
$1,758 Vol.
3%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle—15 retiring outright and seven running for Senate—placing the total squarely in the market’s leading 20–23 bin (57% implied probability).**
This count reflects a wave of senior departures driven by age and tenure, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, Jerry Nadler, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, and Bonnie Watson Coleman, alongside redistricting impacts in states such as Texas and Tennessee that prompted exits like Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen. Additional movement stems from members pursuing higher office, such as Angie Craig, Chris Pappas, Haley Stevens, and Jasmine Crockett seeking Senate seats.
Trader consensus in the 20–23 range aligns with the current announced total and the limited window remaining for further announcements before the November 2026 general election. While primary defeats and isolated resignations continue, they have not yet pushed Democratic departures materially outside this band, and historical patterns show most retirement decisions are finalized well before late summer. The next most likely range (24–27 at 26.5%) would require several additional late announcements, which appear unlikely absent major unforeseen developments.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$49,180End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle—15 retiring outright and seven running for Senate—placing the total squarely in the market’s leading 20–23 bin (57% implied probability).**
This count reflects a wave of senior departures driven by age and tenure, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, Jerry Nadler, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, and Bonnie Watson Coleman, alongside redistricting impacts in states such as Texas and Tennessee that prompted exits like Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen. Additional movement stems from members pursuing higher office, such as Angie Craig, Chris Pappas, Haley Stevens, and Jasmine Crockett seeking Senate seats.
Trader consensus in the 20–23 range aligns with the current announced total and the limited window remaining for further announcements before the November 2026 general election. While primary defeats and isolated resignations continue, they have not yet pushed Democratic departures materially outside this band, and historical patterns show most retirement decisions are finalized well before late summer. The next most likely range (24–27 at 26.5%) would require several additional late announcements, which appear unlikely absent major unforeseen developments.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$49,180End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 cycle—15 retiring outright and seven running for Senate—placing the total squarely in the market’s leading 20–23 bin (57% implied probability).** This count reflects a wave of senior departures driven by age and tenure, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Nydia Velázquez, Jerry Nadler, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, and Bonnie Watson Coleman, alongside redistricting impacts in states such as Texas and Tennessee that prompted exits like Lloyd Doggett and Steve Cohen. Additional movement stems from members pursuing higher office, such as Angie Craig, Chris Pappas, Haley Stevens, and Jasmine Crockett seeking Senate seats. Trader consensus in the 20–23 range aligns with the current announced total and the limited window remaining for further announcements before the November 2026 general election. While primary defeats and isolated resignations continue, they have not yet pushed Democratic departures materially outside this band, and historical patterns show most retirement decisions are finalized well before late summer. The next most likely range (24–27 at 26.5%) would require several additional late announcements, which appear unlikely absent major unforeseen developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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