**Republican House departures for the 2026 midterms have reached 37 members as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 range.** This elevated figure stems primarily from members pursuing statewide offices—nine running for Senate and ten for governor—alongside traditional retirements driven by age, redistricting effects, and institutional frustrations in a narrowly divided chamber. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical midterm patterns when the president’s party often sees elevated turnover. Recent announcements, such as Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) on August 5, continue to accumulate, but the volume of additional exits before filing deadlines appears limited. Trader consensus reflected in the 89.9% probability on 36–39 incorporates these confirmed departures while assigning low odds to substantial further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 91.3%
40–43 5.3%
32–35 2.2%
44+ 1.5%
$72,711 Vol.
$72,711 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
<1%
32–35
2%
36–39
91%
40–43
5%
44+
1%
36–39 91.3%
40–43 5.3%
32–35 2.2%
44+ 1.5%
$72,711 Vol.
$72,711 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,168 Vol.
1%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
<1%
32–35
$6,284 Vol.
2%
36–39
$8,437 Vol.
91%
40–43
$4,296 Vol.
5%
44+
$3,613 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 midterms have reached 37 members as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 range.**
This elevated figure stems primarily from members pursuing statewide offices—nine running for Senate and ten for governor—alongside traditional retirements driven by age, redistricting effects, and institutional frustrations in a narrowly divided chamber. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical midterm patterns when the president’s party often sees elevated turnover. Recent announcements, such as Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) on August 5, continue to accumulate, but the volume of additional exits before filing deadlines appears limited. Trader consensus reflected in the 89.9% probability on 36–39 incorporates these confirmed departures while assigning low odds to substantial further shifts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$72,711End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 midterms have reached 37 members as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 range.**
This elevated figure stems primarily from members pursuing statewide offices—nine running for Senate and ten for governor—alongside traditional retirements driven by age, redistricting effects, and institutional frustrations in a narrowly divided chamber. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical midterm patterns when the president’s party often sees elevated turnover. Recent announcements, such as Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) on August 5, continue to accumulate, but the volume of additional exits before filing deadlines appears limited. Trader consensus reflected in the 89.9% probability on 36–39 incorporates these confirmed departures while assigning low odds to substantial further shifts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$72,711End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House departures for the 2026 midterms have reached 37 members as of early August 2026, according to Ballotpedia tracking, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 range.** This elevated figure stems primarily from members pursuing statewide offices—nine running for Senate and ten for governor—alongside traditional retirements driven by age, redistricting effects, and institutional frustrations in a narrowly divided chamber. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical midterm patterns when the president’s party often sees elevated turnover. Recent announcements, such as Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) on August 5, continue to accumulate, but the volume of additional exits before filing deadlines appears limited. Trader consensus reflected in the 89.9% probability on 36–39 incorporates these confirmed departures while assigning low odds to substantial further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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