Incumbent Republican Brad Little’s commanding position in the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial race reflects the state’s long-standing Republican tilt, where the party has held the governorship continuously since 1995 and last lost a general election for the office in 1990. Little secured renomination in the May primary with 59 percent of the vote and maintains double-digit leads in recent polling against Democrat Terri Pickens, consistent with ratings of Solid Republican or Safe Republican from major forecasters. Traders price the Republican outcome above 95 percent based on this structural advantage, Little’s incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. A major unforeseen scandal, sharp deterioration in Little’s personal standing, or an unusually strong independent performance could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events this close to the November vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,100 Vol.
$23,100 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
95%
Democrat
3%
$23,100 Vol.
$23,100 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$19,529 Vol.
95%
Democrat
$3,571 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Brad Little’s commanding position in the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial race reflects the state’s long-standing Republican tilt, where the party has held the governorship continuously since 1995 and last lost a general election for the office in 1990. Little secured renomination in the May primary with 59 percent of the vote and maintains double-digit leads in recent polling against Democrat Terri Pickens, consistent with ratings of Solid Republican or Safe Republican from major forecasters. Traders price the Republican outcome above 95 percent based on this structural advantage, Little’s incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. A major unforeseen scandal, sharp deterioration in Little’s personal standing, or an unusually strong independent performance could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events this close to the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,100End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Brad Little’s commanding position in the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial race reflects the state’s long-standing Republican tilt, where the party has held the governorship continuously since 1995 and last lost a general election for the office in 1990. Little secured renomination in the May primary with 59 percent of the vote and maintains double-digit leads in recent polling against Democrat Terri Pickens, consistent with ratings of Solid Republican or Safe Republican from major forecasters. Traders price the Republican outcome above 95 percent based on this structural advantage, Little’s incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. A major unforeseen scandal, sharp deterioration in Little’s personal standing, or an unusually strong independent performance could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events this close to the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$23,100End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Little’s commanding position in the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial race reflects the state’s long-standing Republican tilt, where the party has held the governorship continuously since 1995 and last lost a general election for the office in 1990. Little secured renomination in the May primary with 59 percent of the vote and maintains double-digit leads in recent polling against Democrat Terri Pickens, consistent with ratings of Solid Republican or Safe Republican from major forecasters. Traders price the Republican outcome above 95 percent based on this structural advantage, Little’s incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the state. A major unforeseen scandal, sharp deterioration in Little’s personal standing, or an unusually strong independent performance could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events this close to the November vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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