Israeli operations remain confined to a southern Lebanon security zone under a fragile June 2026 ceasefire, with recent strikes in areas like Nabatieh and Deir al-Zahrani responding to Hezbollah drone and rocket incidents that wounded IDF troops in mid-August. U.S.-brokered talks in Rome continue over phased withdrawals tied to Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones and Hezbollah disarmament, while Beirut's government and Hezbollah both reject deeper concessions. No ground incursions toward the capital have occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to entry by late August amid escalation risks involving Iran and broader regional actors. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and enforcement of buffer zones represent the main near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces enter Beirut by...?
Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
$137,334 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$137,334 Vol.
August 31
$7,421 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli operations remain confined to a southern Lebanon security zone under a fragile June 2026 ceasefire, with recent strikes in areas like Nabatieh and Deir al-Zahrani responding to Hezbollah drone and rocket incidents that wounded IDF troops in mid-August. U.S.-brokered talks in Rome continue over phased withdrawals tied to Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones and Hezbollah disarmament, while Beirut's government and Hezbollah both reject deeper concessions. No ground incursions toward the capital have occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to entry by late August amid escalation risks involving Iran and broader regional actors. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and enforcement of buffer zones represent the main near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Volume
$137,334End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli operations remain confined to a southern Lebanon security zone under a fragile June 2026 ceasefire, with recent strikes in areas like Nabatieh and Deir al-Zahrani responding to Hezbollah drone and rocket incidents that wounded IDF troops in mid-August. U.S.-brokered talks in Rome continue over phased withdrawals tied to Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones and Hezbollah disarmament, while Beirut's government and Hezbollah both reject deeper concessions. No ground incursions toward the capital have occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to entry by late August amid escalation risks involving Iran and broader regional actors. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and enforcement of buffer zones represent the main near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$137,334End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli operations remain confined to a southern Lebanon security zone under a fragile June 2026 ceasefire, with recent strikes in areas like Nabatieh and Deir al-Zahrani responding to Hezbollah drone and rocket incidents that wounded IDF troops in mid-August. U.S.-brokered talks in Rome continue over phased withdrawals tied to Lebanese army deployment in pilot zones and Hezbollah disarmament, while Beirut's government and Hezbollah both reject deeper concessions. No ground incursions toward the capital have occurred, and trader consensus assigns low probabilities to entry by late August amid escalation risks involving Iran and broader regional actors. Scheduled diplomatic rounds and enforcement of buffer zones represent the main near-term variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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