**Traders assign a 95.5% probability that Japan's House of Representatives will not be dissolved again in 2026.** This reflects the February 8, 2026, general election, which followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's January 23 dissolution and delivered the LDP a record 316 seats and a supermajority. With a fresh four-year mandate and unified control of the lower house, the government faces minimal incentive for another snap vote before the term's midpoint or later. Historical precedent shows prime ministers rarely dissolve twice in one calendar year absent a crisis, and current polling and legislative stability reinforce this view. The wisdom of crowds in this market prices in the low odds of an early reversal. Plausible but low-probability triggers for a late-2026 dissolution could include a sharp drop in cabinet approval from economic shocks, a successful no-confidence motion, or major coalition fractures, though none appear imminent given the current seat distribution.