The Justice Department closed its criminal investigation into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, citing insufficient evidence of wrongdoing tied to his June 2025 Senate testimony on cost overruns for the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project, and referred the matter to the Fed’s inspector general. No indictment has been filed, and subsequent FOIA litigation by Judicial Watch in August 2026 seeks related grand jury subpoenas without altering the probe’s termination. Trader consensus on related Polymarket contracts assigns roughly 1% implied probability to federal charges by key deadlines, reflecting the absence of new prosecutorial developments and the high evidentiary bar for perjury or false-statement cases involving central bank officials. Upcoming catalysts remain limited to any inspector general report or renewed DOJ action, both viewed as low-probability near-term events given the prior judicial findings of “zero evidence” of criminal conduct.