Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus pricing her reelection prospects at 94.5 percent against Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman at 5.5 percent. Hochul benefits from incumbency advantages, a Democratic primary that faced no serious opposition after earlier challengers withdrew, and New York’s structural tilt toward Democrats in statewide contests, with no Republican victory since 2002. Recent Siena and other polls show her leading Blakeman by roughly 10 points, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure for broad appeals. Factors supporting these odds include Hochul’s established name recognition and the Republican nominee’s narrower base as Nassau County executive. Realistic shifts could arise from sustained economic pressures on voters, unusually high turnout shifts in key regions, or major late-cycle developments that alter perceptions of the candidates’ records on taxes, public safety, or state finances ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew York Governor Election Winner
New York Governor Election Winner
$104,150 Vol.
$104,150 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
6%
$104,150 Vol.
$104,150 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$49,219 Vol.
95%
Republican
$54,931 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus pricing her reelection prospects at 94.5 percent against Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman at 5.5 percent. Hochul benefits from incumbency advantages, a Democratic primary that faced no serious opposition after earlier challengers withdrew, and New York’s structural tilt toward Democrats in statewide contests, with no Republican victory since 2002. Recent Siena and other polls show her leading Blakeman by roughly 10 points, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure for broad appeals. Factors supporting these odds include Hochul’s established name recognition and the Republican nominee’s narrower base as Nassau County executive. Realistic shifts could arise from sustained economic pressures on voters, unusually high turnout shifts in key regions, or major late-cycle developments that alter perceptions of the candidates’ records on taxes, public safety, or state finances ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$104,150End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus pricing her reelection prospects at 94.5 percent against Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman at 5.5 percent. Hochul benefits from incumbency advantages, a Democratic primary that faced no serious opposition after earlier challengers withdrew, and New York’s structural tilt toward Democrats in statewide contests, with no Republican victory since 2002. Recent Siena and other polls show her leading Blakeman by roughly 10 points, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure for broad appeals. Factors supporting these odds include Hochul’s established name recognition and the Republican nominee’s narrower base as Nassau County executive. Realistic shifts could arise from sustained economic pressures on voters, unusually high turnout shifts in key regions, or major late-cycle developments that alter perceptions of the candidates’ records on taxes, public safety, or state finances ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$104,150End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus pricing her reelection prospects at 94.5 percent against Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman at 5.5 percent. Hochul benefits from incumbency advantages, a Democratic primary that faced no serious opposition after earlier challengers withdrew, and New York’s structural tilt toward Democrats in statewide contests, with no Republican victory since 2002. Recent Siena and other polls show her leading Blakeman by roughly 10 points, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and limited Republican infrastructure for broad appeals. Factors supporting these odds include Hochul’s established name recognition and the Republican nominee’s narrower base as Nassau County executive. Realistic shifts could arise from sustained economic pressures on voters, unusually high turnout shifts in key regions, or major late-cycle developments that alter perceptions of the candidates’ records on taxes, public safety, or state finances ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions