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Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Geopolitics·UK Labour Leadership

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Dec 31

Dec 31

Netanyahu - Israel PM 39%

None before 2027 34%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 7.4%

Merz - German Chancellor 3.4%

Polymarket

$215,297 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM 39%

None before 2027 34%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 7.4%

Merz - German Chancellor 3.4%

Polymarket

$215,297 Vol.

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$21,355 Vol.

39%

None before 2027

$77,793 Vol.

34%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$9,386 Vol.

7%

Merz - German Chancellor

$4,754 Vol.

3%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$8,303 Vol.

3%

Macron - France President

$8,319 Vol.

3%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$6,068 Vol.

2%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$5,605 Vol.

2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$5,688 Vol.

2%

Trump - USA President

$4,136 Vol.

2%

Lecornu - France PM

$6,218 Vol.

2%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$4,779 Vol.

2%

Putin - Russia President

$5,629 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$8,608 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$5,275 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$4,385 Vol.

1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$5,181 Vol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$4,103 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$5,410 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$3,728 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$5,100 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$5,474 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu leads trader consensus in this market due to Israel's October 2026 parliamentary election and preceding Knesset dissolution, with polls showing his Likud-led coalition falling short of a majority amid ongoing security challenges, corruption proceedings, and coalition strains. The narrow gap with the "None before 2027" outcome reflects uncertainty over whether any post-election transition would conclude with his permanent removal from office by year-end, given potential delays in government formation or legal maneuvers. Most other listed leaders face stable or extended terms without immediate electoral or institutional triggers before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, keeping their probabilities low and preserving the tight contest between an Israeli change and continuity across the group.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$215,297
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Netanyahu leads trader consensus in this market due to Israel's October 2026 parliamentary election and preceding Knesset dissolution, with polls showing his Likud-led coalition falling short of a majority amid ongoing security challenges, corruption proceedings, and coalition strains. The narrow gap with the "None before 2027" outcome reflects uncertainty over whether any post-election transition would conclude with his permanent removal from office by year-end, given potential delays in government formation or legal maneuvers. Most other listed leaders face stable or extended terms without immediate electoral or institutional triggers before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, keeping their probabilities low and preserving the tight contest between an Israeli change and continuity across the group.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$215,297
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 39%, followed by "None before 2027" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" has generated $215.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" is "Netanyahu - Israel PM" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "None before 2027" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.