Recent expert assessments and OpenAI's own updates point to slower progress on frontier large language models and reasoning systems than anticipated in 2025, with former insiders revising AGI timelines outward to the early 2030s for key milestones like autonomous coding. No official announcements or capability demonstrations have met standard AGI criteria such as outperforming humans across economically valuable tasks. Traders see strong barriers in scaling limits, safety alignment challenges, and the absence of verified breakthroughs through mid-2026. A sudden leap in agent performance or multimodal systems before year-end could still shift outcomes, though current evidence favors extended development cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8% chance
$95,844 Vol.
$95,844 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% chance
$95,844 Vol.
$95,844 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent expert assessments and OpenAI's own updates point to slower progress on frontier large language models and reasoning systems than anticipated in 2025, with former insiders revising AGI timelines outward to the early 2030s for key milestones like autonomous coding. No official announcements or capability demonstrations have met standard AGI criteria such as outperforming humans across economically valuable tasks. Traders see strong barriers in scaling limits, safety alignment challenges, and the absence of verified breakthroughs through mid-2026. A sudden leap in agent performance or multimodal systems before year-end could still shift outcomes, though current evidence favors extended development cycles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$95,844End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent expert assessments and OpenAI's own updates point to slower progress on frontier large language models and reasoning systems than anticipated in 2025, with former insiders revising AGI timelines outward to the early 2030s for key milestones like autonomous coding. No official announcements or capability demonstrations have met standard AGI criteria such as outperforming humans across economically valuable tasks. Traders see strong barriers in scaling limits, safety alignment challenges, and the absence of verified breakthroughs through mid-2026. A sudden leap in agent performance or multimodal systems before year-end could still shift outcomes, though current evidence favors extended development cycles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$95,844End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent expert assessments and OpenAI's own updates point to slower progress on frontier large language models and reasoning systems than anticipated in 2025, with former insiders revising AGI timelines outward to the early 2030s for key milestones like autonomous coding. No official announcements or capability demonstrations have met standard AGI criteria such as outperforming humans across economically valuable tasks. Traders see strong barriers in scaling limits, safety alignment challenges, and the absence of verified breakthroughs through mid-2026. A sudden leap in agent performance or multimodal systems before year-end could still shift outcomes, though current evidence favors extended development cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions