A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.8°C and rising, is the dominant factor tilting trader views toward lower September totals for Seattle by favoring a suppressed storm track later in the month. Early-month troughing and an atmospheric river have already delivered measurable rain across the Pacific Northwest through September 5, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for above-normal precipitation in the first 10 days. This initial boost creates tension with Seattle’s 1.6-inch climatological average and the typical dry transition into fall, producing the observed tight spread across bins from under 1 inch to over 4 inches. Upcoming NHC and CPC model runs plus mid-month updates will clarify whether additional systems materialize before the El Niño-driven ridging strengthens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Seattle in September?
Precipitation in Seattle in September?
<1" 26%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 18%
2-2.5" 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
26%
1-1.5"
20%
1.5-2"
18%
2-2.5"
14%
2.5-3"
13%
>4"
11%
3-4"
15%
<1" 26%
1-1.5" 20%
1.5-2" 18%
2-2.5" 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<1"
$305 Vol.
26%
1-1.5"
$146 Vol.
20%
1.5-2"
$146 Vol.
18%
2-2.5"
$158 Vol.
14%
2.5-3"
$239 Vol.
13%
>4"
$439 Vol.
11%
3-4"
$286 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.8°C and rising, is the dominant factor tilting trader views toward lower September totals for Seattle by favoring a suppressed storm track later in the month. Early-month troughing and an atmospheric river have already delivered measurable rain across the Pacific Northwest through September 5, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for above-normal precipitation in the first 10 days. This initial boost creates tension with Seattle’s 1.6-inch climatological average and the typical dry transition into fall, producing the observed tight spread across bins from under 1 inch to over 4 inches. Upcoming NHC and CPC model runs plus mid-month updates will clarify whether additional systems materialize before the El Niño-driven ridging strengthens.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$1,719End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.8°C and rising, is the dominant factor tilting trader views toward lower September totals for Seattle by favoring a suppressed storm track later in the month. Early-month troughing and an atmospheric river have already delivered measurable rain across the Pacific Northwest through September 5, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for above-normal precipitation in the first 10 days. This initial boost creates tension with Seattle’s 1.6-inch climatological average and the typical dry transition into fall, producing the observed tight spread across bins from under 1 inch to over 4 inches. Upcoming NHC and CPC model runs plus mid-month updates will clarify whether additional systems materialize before the El Niño-driven ridging strengthens.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between September 1 and September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for September 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of September 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,719End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 anomalies near +1.8°C and rising, is the dominant factor tilting trader views toward lower September totals for Seattle by favoring a suppressed storm track later in the month. Early-month troughing and an atmospheric river have already delivered measurable rain across the Pacific Northwest through September 5, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for above-normal precipitation in the first 10 days. This initial boost creates tension with Seattle’s 1.6-inch climatological average and the typical dry transition into fall, producing the observed tight spread across bins from under 1 inch to over 4 inches. Upcoming NHC and CPC model runs plus mid-month updates will clarify whether additional systems materialize before the El Niño-driven ridging strengthens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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