**Trader consensus heavily favors below-normal September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding a 58.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-August forecast of normal-to-below-normal precipitation, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over southern China and the northern South China Sea in the second half of the month, which is expected to suppress widespread convective activity. Early-month observations show only modest accumulations from broad troughs and isolated showers, keeping totals well below the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 320 mm. Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific further tilt the balance toward drier steering patterns and fewer direct tropical cyclone impacts, though model uncertainty remains regarding any late-month systems that could push totals into higher brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 59%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 11%
325-350mm 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
59%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
11%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
5%
400-450mm
6%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
4%
550mm+
7%
<275mm 59%
275-300mm 15%
300-325mm 11%
325-350mm 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$5,982 Vol.
59%
275-300mm
$243 Vol.
15%
300-325mm
$155 Vol.
11%
325-350mm
$176 Vol.
9%
350-375mm
$155 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$154 Vol.
5%
400-450mm
$180 Vol.
6%
450-500mm
$195 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$176 Vol.
4%
550mm+
$177 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favors below-normal September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding a 58.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-August forecast of normal-to-below-normal precipitation, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over southern China and the northern South China Sea in the second half of the month, which is expected to suppress widespread convective activity. Early-month observations show only modest accumulations from broad troughs and isolated showers, keeping totals well below the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 320 mm. Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific further tilt the balance toward drier steering patterns and fewer direct tropical cyclone impacts, though model uncertainty remains regarding any late-month systems that could push totals into higher brackets.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$7,591End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus heavily favors below-normal September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding a 58.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-August forecast of normal-to-below-normal precipitation, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over southern China and the northern South China Sea in the second half of the month, which is expected to suppress widespread convective activity. Early-month observations show only modest accumulations from broad troughs and isolated showers, keeping totals well below the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 320 mm. Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific further tilt the balance toward drier steering patterns and fewer direct tropical cyclone impacts, though model uncertainty remains regarding any late-month systems that could push totals into higher brackets.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,591End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors below-normal September 2026 rainfall in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm outcome holding a 58.5% implied probability.** This positioning aligns with the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-August forecast of normal-to-below-normal precipitation, driven by a strengthening anticyclone over southern China and the northern South China Sea in the second half of the month, which is expected to suppress widespread convective activity. Early-month observations show only modest accumulations from broad troughs and isolated showers, keeping totals well below the 1991–2020 climatological mean of roughly 320 mm. Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific further tilt the balance toward drier steering patterns and fewer direct tropical cyclone impacts, though model uncertainty remains regarding any late-month systems that could push totals into higher brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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