**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?
26°C 96.7%
20°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$26,183 Vol.
$26,183 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
97%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 96.7%
20°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$26,183 Vol.
$26,183 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$1,964 Vol.
1%
21°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$558 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,569 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,615 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,876 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5,621 Vol.
97%
27°C
$2,962 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,691 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,034 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$26,183End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,183End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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