Current meteorological guidance from multiple models and agencies, including consistent outputs from GFS-based forecasts, points to a daily maximum of 19–20°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 20.3°C for the date and reflects stable high-pressure conditions limiting significant warming or cooling. Trader consensus at 93% implied probability for exactly 20°C incorporates the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts, where observational data from stations like Schiphol will determine resolution. A modest model shift toward stronger southerly flow or reduced cloud cover could push readings to 21°C, though current consensus makes this low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 5?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 5?
20°C 96%
21°C 4%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$65,873 Vol.
$65,873 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
96%
21°C
4%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 96%
21°C 4%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$65,873 Vol.
$65,873 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
15°C or below
$381 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$491 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$16,344 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$8,156 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$13,622 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$12,207 Vol.
96%
21°C
$7,411 Vol.
4%
22°C
$4,034 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$322 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$227 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological guidance from multiple models and agencies, including consistent outputs from GFS-based forecasts, points to a daily maximum of 19–20°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 20.3°C for the date and reflects stable high-pressure conditions limiting significant warming or cooling. Trader consensus at 93% implied probability for exactly 20°C incorporates the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts, where observational data from stations like Schiphol will determine resolution. A modest model shift toward stronger southerly flow or reduced cloud cover could push readings to 21°C, though current consensus makes this low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$65,873End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological guidance from multiple models and agencies, including consistent outputs from GFS-based forecasts, points to a daily maximum of 19–20°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 20.3°C for the date and reflects stable high-pressure conditions limiting significant warming or cooling. Trader consensus at 93% implied probability for exactly 20°C incorporates the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts, where observational data from stations like Schiphol will determine resolution. A modest model shift toward stronger southerly flow or reduced cloud cover could push readings to 21°C, though current consensus makes this low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65,873End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current meteorological guidance from multiple models and agencies, including consistent outputs from GFS-based forecasts, points to a daily maximum of 19–20°C in Amsterdam on September 5 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly winds. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 20.3°C for the date and reflects stable high-pressure conditions limiting significant warming or cooling. Trader consensus at 93% implied probability for exactly 20°C incorporates the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts, where observational data from stations like Schiphol will determine resolution. A modest model shift toward stronger southerly flow or reduced cloud cover could push readings to 21°C, though current consensus makes this low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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