The overwhelming market consensus on 29°C reflects the latest official forecasts from Philippine weather authorities, which show Manila under stable tropical conditions with a daytime maximum aligning precisely at that level. Current atmospheric patterns, including moderate trade winds and typical September humidity, support this outcome based on verified observational data and model runs. Historical climatology for early September in the region places average highs near 30–31°C, making 29°C a plausible and well-supported central estimate. A sudden convective rain event or unforecasted shift in the monsoon trough could still alter the final recorded maximum, though such changes appear unlikely given the short remaining window for significant deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 5?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 5?
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$32,758 Vol.
$32,758 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
100%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$32,758 Vol.
$32,758 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
$155 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$791 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,011 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,936 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,906 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3,015 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,744 Vol.
100%
30°C
$5,153 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,112 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$1,134 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$799 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming market consensus on 29°C reflects the latest official forecasts from Philippine weather authorities, which show Manila under stable tropical conditions with a daytime maximum aligning precisely at that level. Current atmospheric patterns, including moderate trade winds and typical September humidity, support this outcome based on verified observational data and model runs. Historical climatology for early September in the region places average highs near 30–31°C, making 29°C a plausible and well-supported central estimate. A sudden convective rain event or unforecasted shift in the monsoon trough could still alter the final recorded maximum, though such changes appear unlikely given the short remaining window for significant deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$32,758End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The overwhelming market consensus on 29°C reflects the latest official forecasts from Philippine weather authorities, which show Manila under stable tropical conditions with a daytime maximum aligning precisely at that level. Current atmospheric patterns, including moderate trade winds and typical September humidity, support this outcome based on verified observational data and model runs. Historical climatology for early September in the region places average highs near 30–31°C, making 29°C a plausible and well-supported central estimate. A sudden convective rain event or unforecasted shift in the monsoon trough could still alter the final recorded maximum, though such changes appear unlikely given the short remaining window for significant deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32,758End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The overwhelming market consensus on 29°C reflects the latest official forecasts from Philippine weather authorities, which show Manila under stable tropical conditions with a daytime maximum aligning precisely at that level. Current atmospheric patterns, including moderate trade winds and typical September humidity, support this outcome based on verified observational data and model runs. Historical climatology for early September in the region places average highs near 30–31°C, making 29°C a plausible and well-supported central estimate. A sudden convective rain event or unforecasted shift in the monsoon trough could still alter the final recorded maximum, though such changes appear unlikely given the short remaining window for significant deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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