**Forecast models and real-time observations position 37°C as the market favorite for Madrid's September 5 high.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS-derived guidance, show afternoon peaks of 34–37°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface pressures near 1020 hPa, consistent with late-summer continental heating in the Spanish interior. Current readings around midday already approach 34°C with low humidity (~20–30%), supporting further warming before evening cooling. Historical September averages near 27–29°C provide context for the elevated but not extreme values, while minor cloud cover and lack of strong advection keep extremes (below 36°C or above 38°C) less probable. Traders are weighting the tight consensus around 36–38°C ahead of the official AEMET daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
37°C 52%
38°C 25%
36°C 20%
39°C 4%
$67,421 Vol.
$67,421 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
20%
37°C
52%
38°C
20%
39°C
4%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 52%
38°C 25%
36°C 20%
39°C 4%
$67,421 Vol.
$67,421 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
33°C or below
$4,404 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$4,888 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$10,617 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$13,795 Vol.
20%
37°C
$9,617 Vol.
52%
38°C
$13,001 Vol.
20%
39°C
$6,716 Vol.
4%
40°C
$2,627 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$179 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$455 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations position 37°C as the market favorite for Madrid's September 5 high.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS-derived guidance, show afternoon peaks of 34–37°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface pressures near 1020 hPa, consistent with late-summer continental heating in the Spanish interior. Current readings around midday already approach 34°C with low humidity (~20–30%), supporting further warming before evening cooling. Historical September averages near 27–29°C provide context for the elevated but not extreme values, while minor cloud cover and lack of strong advection keep extremes (below 36°C or above 38°C) less probable. Traders are weighting the tight consensus around 36–38°C ahead of the official AEMET daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$67,421End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and real-time observations position 37°C as the market favorite for Madrid's September 5 high.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS-derived guidance, show afternoon peaks of 34–37°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface pressures near 1020 hPa, consistent with late-summer continental heating in the Spanish interior. Current readings around midday already approach 34°C with low humidity (~20–30%), supporting further warming before evening cooling. Historical September averages near 27–29°C provide context for the elevated but not extreme values, while minor cloud cover and lack of strong advection keep extremes (below 36°C or above 38°C) less probable. Traders are weighting the tight consensus around 36–38°C ahead of the official AEMET daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,421End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and real-time observations position 37°C as the market favorite for Madrid's September 5 high.** Multiple numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS-derived guidance, show afternoon peaks of 34–37°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and surface pressures near 1020 hPa, consistent with late-summer continental heating in the Spanish interior. Current readings around midday already approach 34°C with low humidity (~20–30%), supporting further warming before evening cooling. Historical September averages near 27–29°C provide context for the elevated but not extreme values, while minor cloud cover and lack of strong advection keep extremes (below 36°C or above 38°C) less probable. Traders are weighting the tight consensus around 36–38°C ahead of the official AEMET daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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