Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate afternoon highs of 34–37°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow, positioning 37°C as the market leader at 50% implied probability. These conditions reflect a continuation of the current heat episode, with dew points near 8–10°C supporting efficient daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Historical context shows a September 6 record of 38.9°C from 2016, though the 1991–2020 average high stands at 28.7°C; recent model consensus has narrowed the range away from 38°C or higher while keeping 36°C as a close secondary outcome. Forecasters anticipate the peak temperature window between 15:00–18:00 local time, with minimal precipitation risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 6?
37°C 50%
36°C 39%
38°C 11%
35°C 3%
NEW
$10,607 Vol.
NEW
$10,607 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
3%
36°C
39%
37°C
50%
38°C
11%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
37°C 50%
36°C 39%
38°C 11%
35°C 3%
NEW
$10,607 Vol.
NEW
$10,607 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
33°C or below
$495 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$433 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,402 Vol.
3%
36°C
$2,136 Vol.
39%
37°C
$2,248 Vol.
50%
38°C
$2,206 Vol.
11%
39°C
$501 Vol.
1%
40°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$547 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$199 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$189 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate afternoon highs of 34–37°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow, positioning 37°C as the market leader at 50% implied probability. These conditions reflect a continuation of the current heat episode, with dew points near 8–10°C supporting efficient daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Historical context shows a September 6 record of 38.9°C from 2016, though the 1991–2020 average high stands at 28.7°C; recent model consensus has narrowed the range away from 38°C or higher while keeping 36°C as a close secondary outcome. Forecasters anticipate the peak temperature window between 15:00–18:00 local time, with minimal precipitation risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$10,607End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate afternoon highs of 34–37°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow, positioning 37°C as the market leader at 50% implied probability. These conditions reflect a continuation of the current heat episode, with dew points near 8–10°C supporting efficient daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Historical context shows a September 6 record of 38.9°C from 2016, though the 1991–2020 average high stands at 28.7°C; recent model consensus has narrowed the range away from 38°C or higher while keeping 36°C as a close secondary outcome. Forecasters anticipate the peak temperature window between 15:00–18:00 local time, with minimal precipitation risk.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,607End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, indicate afternoon highs of 34–37°C for Madrid on September 6 under mostly clear skies with light southerly flow, positioning 37°C as the market leader at 50% implied probability. These conditions reflect a continuation of the current heat episode, with dew points near 8–10°C supporting efficient daytime heating at the city's 655 m elevation. Historical context shows a September 6 record of 38.9°C from 2016, though the 1991–2020 average high stands at 28.7°C; recent model consensus has narrowed the range away from 38°C or higher while keeping 36°C as a close secondary outcome. Forecasters anticipate the peak temperature window between 15:00–18:00 local time, with minimal precipitation risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions