Recent forecast model consensus from agencies monitoring the region points to a daily maximum of 35°C at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, the official resolution station, driven by warm, humid southerly flow and limited cloud cover during peak heating hours. This aligns with late-summer climatology where September averages near 32–33°C but allows occasional peaks several degrees higher under stable conditions. Trader positioning at near-certain implied probability reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these model runs and real-time observations. Key variables that could alter the outcome include stronger afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloudiness, which have historically capped highs 2–4°C below guidance on similar dates. Final NOAA hourly data will confirm resolution once available.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$134,415 Vol.
$134,415 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
100%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$134,415 Vol.
$134,415 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
27°C or below
$565 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,662 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,826 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,686 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$9,786 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$10,296 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$14,675 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$16,759 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$35,525 Vol.
100%
36°C
$23,339 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$13,314 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies monitoring the region points to a daily maximum of 35°C at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, the official resolution station, driven by warm, humid southerly flow and limited cloud cover during peak heating hours. This aligns with late-summer climatology where September averages near 32–33°C but allows occasional peaks several degrees higher under stable conditions. Trader positioning at near-certain implied probability reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these model runs and real-time observations. Key variables that could alter the outcome include stronger afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloudiness, which have historically capped highs 2–4°C below guidance on similar dates. Final NOAA hourly data will confirm resolution once available.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$134,415End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies monitoring the region points to a daily maximum of 35°C at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, the official resolution station, driven by warm, humid southerly flow and limited cloud cover during peak heating hours. This aligns with late-summer climatology where September averages near 32–33°C but allows occasional peaks several degrees higher under stable conditions. Trader positioning at near-certain implied probability reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these model runs and real-time observations. Key variables that could alter the outcome include stronger afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloudiness, which have historically capped highs 2–4°C below guidance on similar dates. Final NOAA hourly data will confirm resolution once available.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$134,415End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from agencies monitoring the region points to a daily maximum of 35°C at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, the official resolution station, driven by warm, humid southerly flow and limited cloud cover during peak heating hours. This aligns with late-summer climatology where September averages near 32–33°C but allows occasional peaks several degrees higher under stable conditions. Trader positioning at near-certain implied probability reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these model runs and real-time observations. Key variables that could alter the outcome include stronger afternoon thunderstorms or increased cloudiness, which have historically capped highs 2–4°C below guidance on similar dates. Final NOAA hourly data will confirm resolution once available.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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