**Persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and light winds are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited across Guangzhou, supporting the tight market-implied odds between 25°C (50.5%) and 26°C (49.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble models show a minimum near or slightly above the 24.9°C climatological average, with dew points remaining in the mid-20s °C and only weak northeasterly flow. Thunderstorm activity and lingering moisture from the monsoon trough further suppress temperature drops, while historical analogs for early-September overcast nights rarely dip below 24°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing minimal additional cooling before dawn, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 5?
23°C 88%
25°C 51%
26°C 50%
24°C 45%
$2,119 Vol.
$2,119 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
88%
24°C
45%
25°C
51%
26°C
50%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 88%
25°C 51%
26°C 50%
24°C 45%
$2,119 Vol.
$2,119 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
19°C or below
$67 Vol.
1%
20°C
$62 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$67 Vol.
2%
22°C
$91 Vol.
5%
23°C
$97 Vol.
88%
24°C
$79 Vol.
45%
25°C
$1 Vol.
51%
26°C
$0 Vol.
50%
27°C
$1,035 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$570 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and light winds are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited across Guangzhou, supporting the tight market-implied odds between 25°C (50.5%) and 26°C (49.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble models show a minimum near or slightly above the 24.9°C climatological average, with dew points remaining in the mid-20s °C and only weak northeasterly flow. Thunderstorm activity and lingering moisture from the monsoon trough further suppress temperature drops, while historical analogs for early-September overcast nights rarely dip below 24°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing minimal additional cooling before dawn, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$2,119End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and light winds are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited across Guangzhou, supporting the tight market-implied odds between 25°C (50.5%) and 26°C (49.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble models show a minimum near or slightly above the 24.9°C climatological average, with dew points remaining in the mid-20s °C and only weak northeasterly flow. Thunderstorm activity and lingering moisture from the monsoon trough further suppress temperature drops, while historical analogs for early-September overcast nights rarely dip below 24°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing minimal additional cooling before dawn, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,119End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high humidity, widespread cloud cover, and light winds are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited across Guangzhou, supporting the tight market-implied odds between 25°C (50.5%) and 26°C (49.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble models show a minimum near or slightly above the 24.9°C climatological average, with dew points remaining in the mid-20s °C and only weak northeasterly flow. Thunderstorm activity and lingering moisture from the monsoon trough further suppress temperature drops, while historical analogs for early-September overcast nights rarely dip below 24°C. Traders are weighting the latest model runs showing minimal additional cooling before dawn, with resolution hinging on the final China Meteorological Administration reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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